I have to disagree - it is possible to put this across and I have been doing
so for years. The wording goes soemthing like "No one can know exactly how
much HRT will reduce your chance of osteoporosis but the most optimistic
estimate says X% and the most pessimistic says Y%. So you can expect your
chances to frop by Y% or as much as X%". Most people in my experience
understand the words (concepts) chance, estimate and optimistic/pessimistic.
--
Kev Hopayian, Seahills, Leiston Rd, Aldeburgh, Suffolk IP15 5PL, England
----------
>From: Jim Wang <[log in to unmask]>
>To: <[log in to unmask]>
>Subject: Confidence interval
>Date: Mon, Dec 13, 1999, 11:33 pm
>
> Dear All,
>
> In counselling/discussing with patients about their individual risk is
> confidential interval useful? I feel it is not since no one can really
> understand the true meaning of " your risk is 30%, but the confidential
> interval can be as low as 15% and as high as 45% while the actual final
> outcome is you either get it or not get it". But CI is certainly useful in
> a group situation to assess the accuracy of your estimation or your
> treatment efficacy etc. Any comments?
>
> Regards and Happy New Year to all of you.
>
>
>
>
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