-----Original Message-----
From: [log in to unmask] [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
Sent: Thursday, October 14, 1999 10:53 PM
It may be of use to refer to the new estimates of the economically
active population in each ward, for use to calculate properly defined
residence-based unemployment rates for each electoral ward in England,
and therefore for Constituencies which are usually agregations of
wards.
This may allow a healthier debate about which measure is preferable.
These new estimates are currently in draft form, produced at Oxford
University, commissioned by the DETR for a review of its index of
deprivation, and are available for comment, though the deadline for
comment is today. See website http://index99.apsoc.ox.ac.uk, material
on 'Denominators'.
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A very promising development.
But I don't think there is much to debate about the use of workforce
unemploynment statistics at a ward level. The production of such statisics
would be nonsense on very tall and slender stilts.
The great merit of these Oxford University estimates for econonomically
active population for wards is that they are available to local authorities
and others by email. So there is the opportunity to be used by local
authorities for the calculation of unemployment rates and for the estimates
to be commented upon in the light of local knowledge.
That is the kind of way such statistical systems should operate. The great
advantage of central estimation is to give consistency with national and
regional statistics. But the disadvantage, as is well acknowledged by the
Oxford team, is that the estimates are not informed by local knowledge.
The Oxford team have in effect taken on ONS type of responsibilities. I
just wonder who is going to pick up the tab to keep such work going. Can
we look forward to some future edition of the Guide to Official Statistics
that has a section on statistics for local areas?
Ray Thomas, Social Sciences, Open University
Email: [log in to unmask]
Tel: 01908-679081 Fax: 01908-550401
Post: 35 Passmore, Milton Keynes MK6 3DY
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