At 17:41 17/09/2020, John Bibby wrote:
>Is this true? ... What predictions WERE made? .... What caused this
>- what was wrong? ........ What other questions are we missing?
Is it really a matter of 'wrong', rather than simply that it is not
really a mathematical ('modellable') issue?
With all the necessary/usual assumptions and caveats, modellers can
attempt to predict what effect particular changes in transmission
(i.e. 'R') (nationally or regionally) will have on disease incidence
and prevalence - but, to my mind, that's about it.
Beyond that, the modellers have exactly the same problem as
government - not knowing how behavior of people will respond to
attempts to relax or tighten (nationally of regionally) particular
measures intended to reduce transmission, and how the attempted
changes, and changed behaviour, will actually affect the (national or
regional) 'R' value.
As far as I can see, the only way to ascertain the effect of
particular changes is 'empirical' (aka 'suck it and see') - and even
that is probably next-to-impossible when all sorts of different
things are being relaxed and/or tightened (and in different places)
more-or-less simultaneously.
Kind Regards,
John
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