And different social structures in different countries. The UK lost its extended family system during the industrial revolution. Italy still has it to a degree. A decision on closing schools in the uk would have a bad effect on the NHS but might have a lesser effect in Italy.
Alan
Sent from my iPhone
> On 16 Mar 2020, at 15:57, Hofstede, Gertjan <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
>
> Yes, cool stuff for us modellers.
>
> So far the differences in approach by countries speaks a lot about culture (e.g. from leaders: cover up? Overreact? Neglect longer term for political gain? From population: follow guidelines religiously, or sloppily?). If we have a good model, we could also play with policy and culture. It will not help for this outbreak, but it might do so for the next one.
>
> Gert Jan
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: News and discussion about computer simulation in the social sciences <[log in to unmask]> On Behalf Of Frank Dignum
> Sent: maandag 16 maart 2020 16:51
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: Re: [SIMSOC] Disease models at the WP
>
> Hi Christopher,
> I completely agree with your observations. We hope(!) to get a model that is general enough to actually explore different scenarios. It will be very limited as we also want to move quick now. But we try to set it up such that we can easily refine it and also have other people use it.
> In that way we can look at the different possible stories that can be told and what assumptions they depend on.
> Cheers,
> Frank.
>
>> On 2020-03-16 16:02, Christopher Watts wrote:
>> Dear Frank, Christophe, and all,
>>
>> I'm sure many of us on Simsoc will take an interest in viewing such
>> models when you're ready, thanks!
>>
>> In the meantime, there is plenty for Social Simulation modellers to
>> discuss.
>>
>> As some of you may know, the UK government has (at time of writing!)
>> adopted a rather different approach to other European countries. In
>> particular, most schools and workplaces remain open here (unless
>> closed by more local decisions). I know enough about disease modelling
>> to know not to rush into judging others' conclusions until I've seen
>> the working... (But I *am* looking forward to them publishing more
>> details about their modelling.)
>>
>> However, from the comments of the UK's Chief Scientific Advisor and
>> Chief Medical Officer last week, two modelling lessons have struck me
>> in particular.
>>
>> Modellers' lesson one is the importance, when designing a model, of
>> continuing the story.
>>
>> For example, it would be easy for a modeller to think thus:
>>
>> 1) Children go to school, cough over each other, spread virus.
>> Therefore, close schools. Disease thwarted!
>>
>> But a wise modelling team know they have now to continue the
>> children's stories...
>>
>> 2) Children stay at home. Under UK law, that means small children must
>> be looked after at home by someone older.
>> a) If that person is a parent, there are consequences for that
>> parent's work. If that parent works in healthcare, there are
>> consequences for the UK's ability to deal with the virus.
>> b) If that person is a grandparent, then the child is now in contact
>> with - and able to cough over - a member of a group much more
>> vulnerable to the virus.
>>
>> Another way to continue the story is:
>>
>> 3) One parent agrees to host play dates for other families' children,
>> to stop them getting bored. Thus the children are not in social
>> isolation (though their social contacts are at least smaller than at
>> school).
>>
>> So what's the best advice? To close, or not to close, the schools?
>>
>> Modelling lesson two, I would suggest, is to reply that we don't know
>> the answer in advance.
>>
>> We'll have to estimate, as best we can, the adoption rates and
>> infection rates attached to these social practices. And then run the
>> simulation models. And until then, we don't know what numbers are
>> going to come out of them. Unanticipated outcomes from social systems
>> is our business. The sizes of some of the effects of particular
>> policies may yet surprise us. E.g. most of the success in delaying
>> infection may turn out to be coming from increased hand washing, or
>> self-isolating when you first display the symptoms, rather than from
>> school closures. (The official advisors' comments suggest to me that
>> this is what their models have been saying.)
>>
>> Thus, while the UK government's advice has already prompted at least
>> two critical joint letters (one mostly from behavioural scientists,
>> the other mostly from mathematicians and complex networks people), I
>> myself won't be signing any such letters ... yet.
>>
>> Comments and other suggestions welcome, and I look forward to
>> everyone's models.
>>
>> Christopher Watts
>>
>>
>>
>>> On 16/03/2020 13:53, Frank Dignum wrote:
>>> Thanks for sharing this.
>>> We in Umeå have just (one hour ago!) started to develop a more mature
>>> agent model for a simulation that could give more insights in the
>>> effectiveness of different measures. If we get anything interesting
>>> out of this effort in the next week or two we will certainly share.
>>> The simulation will be in NetLogo in order to work quick and also
>>> allow other people to work on it. Of course we will share that code
>>> once we are confident that we have something worth to share.
>>> Best regards,
>>> Frank Dignum.
>>>
>>> On 2020-03-16 14:31, Christopher Watts wrote:
>>>> For those of you who haven't seen it yet, the Washington Post has
>>>> discovered agent-based simulations!
>>>>
>>>> https://eur01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fgraphics%2F2020%2Fworld%2Fcorona-simulator%2F&data=02%7C01%7C%7Cd6833285047347148d0c08d7c9c2ba75%7C1faf88fea9984c5b93c9210a11d9a5c2%7C0%7C0%7C637199710499003704&sdata=X3dwK5w5cnzV%2Fhrcx2MEWmNuwoS6a%2Bo%2Fg5SKytmLFdw%3D&reserved=0
>>>>
>>>> While these models are too simple - and the article's author too
>>>> careful - to make serious policy recommendations from them, it could
>>>> be a good opportunity to explain to colleagues / friends / family
>>>> what the agent-based modelling approach can be used for...
>>>>
>>>> Keep healthy,
>>>>
>>>> Christopher Watts
>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>
> --
> Med vänlig hälsning/Best regards,
>
> Frank Dignum *
> Professor Socially Aware AI *
> Department of Computer Science *
> Umeå University *
> Sverige * Knowledge is only one point,
> e-mail: [log in to unmask] * the ignorant have multiplied it
> telephone: +46-90-7869101 *
>
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