At 10:44 26/06/2016 +0100, Paul Spicker wrote:
>.... The explanation went something like this. In a binary vote, on an
>issue that most people haven't a clue about or don't care about, with
>large numbers of participants, the distribution of opinions will tend to a
>normal curve.
What is meant by "the distribution of opinions will tend to a normal curve"
in relation to a binary situation?
>...The author then went on to examine what happened if a smaller, specific
>cohort had a strong fixed view on either side. The answer was it would
>only take a relatively small proportion within a much larger electorate to
>shift the centre of the curve in their direction.
I'm not sure I understand that, and nor (as above) am I sure what is meant
by "the centre of the curve" means in relation to a binary variable - does
it just refer to the overall totals (or percentages) of votes?
If, as suggested, that majority of voters who "haven't a clue about or
don't care" effectively voted at random, one would expect their votes to
effectively 'cancel', so that the outcome (overall difference between votes
for the two options) would essentially be dictated by the votes of the
minority who "did have a clue and cared". In that situation, if the
proportion of those who "did have a clue and cared" were tiny, then the
outcome obviously would be determined just by the opinions/votes of that
tiny cohort. Is that perhaps what they meant?
Kind Regards,
John
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