The discussion has been curiously unrelated to statistics. A very long
time ago, I read a section in a book whose title I can't remember - I'm
hoping someone on this list will be able to remind me. It sought to
explain statistically why so many public votes on the fluoridation of
water were being lost, in the face of expert opinion about the benefits
of fluoride. The explanation went something like this. In a binary
vote, on an issue that most people haven't a clue about or don't care
about, with large numbers of participants, the distribution of opinions
will tend to a normal curve. The author then went on to examine what
happened if a smaller, specific cohort had a strong fixed view on either
side. The answer was it would only take a relatively small proportion
within a much larger electorate to shift the centre of the curve in
their direction. In the case of fluoridation, the lukewarm support of
experts was being drowned out by passionate and irrational opposition to
fluoride.
Can anyone tell me what the book was, or does anyone have a contemporary
illustration showing the implications numerically?
--
Paul Spicker
Emeritus Professor of Public Policy
Robert Gordon University
tel: +44 1334850164
website: http://www.spicker.uk/
blog: http://blog.spicker.uk/
******************************************************
Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your
message will go only to the sender of this message.
If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's
'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically
to [log in to unmask]
Disclaimer: The messages sent to this list are the views of the sender and cannot be assumed to be representative of the range of views held by subscribers to the Radical Statistics Group. To find out more about Radical Statistics and its aims and activities and read current and past issues of our newsletter you are invited to visit our web site www.radstats.org.uk.
*******************************************************
|