RSS Environmental Statistics Section and Lancashire
and East Cumbria local group joint meeting - Wednesday 2nd May
Aspects of River Flow Modelling
The meeting with take place at 3-4.30pm on Wednesday 2nd Mayin Room A54
of the Postgraduate Statistics Centre, Lancaster University . The
meeting will be followed by refreshments. All are welcome to attend.
Three talks will be presented:
Speakers:
Adrian Bowman & Alastair Rushworth (University of Glasgow)
Going with the flow: regression models for river networks
Where measurements are made over a river network, the relationships
between different sampling points must be suitably reflected in a model,
including connectedness, river distance and flow volumes. A variety of
models based on covariance functions are now available. This talk
addresses the problem from a regression perspective and discusses how a
spatiotemporal model, including seasonal patterns and interactions, can
be constructed to describe the system. The methods will be illustrated
on the large, dendritic network of the River Tweed.
----------------
Caroline Keef (Yorkshire Water)
Spatial Extremes of River Flows
Extreme river flows often result in flooding, floods can cause damage in
many ways. When flooding occurs over large areas this damage may be
catastrophic. Estimating the areas over which flooding may occur can
help a number of different organisations and industries, including the
insurance industry, government organisations and utilities. In this
presentation we will present a method to estimate the possible spatial
extent of floods.
----------------
Keith Beven (Lancaster University)
Disinformation and epistemic error in modelling floods
There are many different sources of uncertainty in hydrological
modelling. Nearly all of those sources involve epistemic errors and in
some cases certain periods of observations can be disinformative. This
compromises formal statistical methods of inference about appropriate
models. One attempt at an alternative approach is the Generalised
Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. GLUE is,
fundamentally, a rejectionist approach to inference, most recently using
model evaluations based on limits of acceptability. Some applications of
GLUE to rainfall-runoff modelling and flood inundation modelling will be
used to illustrate the concepts.
----------------
Followed by drinks.
--
***********************************************************
Richard Wilkinson
Lecturer in Statistics
School of Mathematical Sciences
University of Nottingham
Nottingham, NG7 2RD
[log in to unmask]
http://www.maths.nottingham.ac.uk/personal/pmzrdw/
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