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RSS Environmental Statistics Section and Lancashire and East Cumbria local group joint meeting - Wednesday 2nd May Aspects of River Flow Modelling The meeting with take place at 3-4.30pm on Wednesday 2nd Mayin Room A54 of the Postgraduate Statistics Centre, Lancaster University . The meeting will be followed by refreshments. All are welcome to attend. Three talks will be presented: Speakers: Adrian Bowman & Alastair Rushworth (University of Glasgow) Going with the flow: regression models for river networks Where measurements are made over a river network, the relationships between different sampling points must be suitably reflected in a model, including connectedness, river distance and flow volumes. A variety of models based on covariance functions are now available. This talk addresses the problem from a regression perspective and discusses how a spatiotemporal model, including seasonal patterns and interactions, can be constructed to describe the system. The methods will be illustrated on the large, dendritic network of the River Tweed. ---------------- Caroline Keef (Yorkshire Water) Spatial Extremes of River Flows Extreme river flows often result in flooding, floods can cause damage in many ways. When flooding occurs over large areas this damage may be catastrophic. Estimating the areas over which flooding may occur can help a number of different organisations and industries, including the insurance industry, government organisations and utilities. In this presentation we will present a method to estimate the possible spatial extent of floods. ---------------- Keith Beven (Lancaster University) Disinformation and epistemic error in modelling floods There are many different sources of uncertainty in hydrological modelling. Nearly all of those sources involve epistemic errors and in some cases certain periods of observations can be disinformative. This compromises formal statistical methods of inference about appropriate models. One attempt at an alternative approach is the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. GLUE is, fundamentally, a rejectionist approach to inference, most recently using model evaluations based on limits of acceptability. Some applications of GLUE to rainfall-runoff modelling and flood inundation modelling will be used to illustrate the concepts. ---------------- Followed by drinks. -- *********************************************************** Richard Wilkinson Lecturer in Statistics School of Mathematical Sciences University of Nottingham Nottingham, NG7 2RD [log in to unmask] http://www.maths.nottingham.ac.uk/personal/pmzrdw/ *********************************************************** This message and any attachment are intended solely for the addressee and may co ntain confidential information. If you have received this message in error, plea se send it back to me, and immediately delete it. Please do not use, copy or d isclose the information contained in this message or in any attachment. Any vie ws or opinions expressed by the author of this email do not necessarily reflect the views of the University of Nottingham. This message has been checked for viruses but the contents of an attachment may still contain software viruses which could damage your computer system: you are advised to perform your own checks. Email communications with the University of Nottingham may be monitored as permitted by UK legislation. _____________________________________________________________________ Homepage for envstat list: http://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/files/envstat