I think the only thing you can say for certain about electoral reform
is that a different system will produce different behaviour. AV is not
very revolutionary. It keeps single member constituencies and in many
constituencies it won't have much effect.
But it does give both candidates and voters better information about
voters preferences. The Lib Dems hoped that they would benefit from
being everyone's favourite second choice, but in present circumstances
this may prove to be a delusion. Over time it would permit smaller
parties to build up support. That might mean that the Lib Dem strategy
could be undermined
AV might increase turnout. At present there isn't much incentive for
people to vote at all if they know the party they really support won't win.
On 10/04/11 16:16, Tony Greenfield wrote:
>
> *To AV or not to AV?*
>
> I really cannot decide which way to vote in the referendum.We are
> asked to choose between two unsatisfactory methods.The only arguments
> I have seen, for both sides, are assertions, often over long lists of
> signatories, with very few references to places where the methods are
> used.
>
> Simulation seems, to me, to be the only way to compare methods.I tried
> this, basing my prior distributions on the 2010 parliamentary
> results,This showed a great bias to the liberal democrats.However, I
> accept that my simulation procedure and my assumptions are too weak
> even to discuss.
>
> A problem with old age is that I lack resources and energy to pursue
> the project.I should like to see a well-constructed simulation study
> of parliamentaryelections comparing all possible candidate voting
> systems.As well as AV and FPTP,these should include the alternative
> member system (AMS),AV plus,mixed member proportional (MMP), mixed
> member system (MMS), a regional list, a second ballot (SB),a single
> transferable vote (STV), a supplementary vote (SV) and some hybrids of
> these.
>
> Or perhaps, from the study, we could invent a method that is better
> than any of these?Better in what way?A fairer representation *and* a
> stronger government?These two aims are perhaps incompatible.
>
> But does it matter in the long run?Most despots must believe that
> democracy is the counting of heads regardless of what’s in them.
>
> *Tony Greenfield
> Middle Cottage
> Little Hucklow
> Derbyshire SK17 8RT
> 01298 872326
>
> [log in to unmask]
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_Greenfield*
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