My girlfriend and I once bought two lottery tickets - she picked her numbers out carefully, I put down 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6, much to her shock. I pointed out that not only is there just as much chance of my numbers coming out as hers, there would be a higher chance that I might not have to share my jackpot with other people.
Unless other people thought the same.
Needless to say, neither of us won anything. Which kind of proved my point.
At the risk of annoying the whole mailing list, I do like to console myself with the warped logic that the chances of winning the lottery, along with everything else is 50/50.
Either you do or you don't.
Alex
-----Original Message-----
From: email list for Radical Statistics [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of John Whittington
Sent: 14 April 2011 09:14
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: statistical trivia
At 08:27 14/04/2011 +0100, Moore, Robert wrote:
>Helping my grandchildren clear up last weekend I collected six assorted
>dice and tossed them into the games box. The dice landed 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
>This looked like a quite remarkable outcome and my immediate thought was
>that there must be huge odds against this. But is the outcome of this
>throw any more or less likely than any other?
As I'm sure you know, no, it is no more or less likely than any other outcome.
This is, in fact, the very technique I use to try to make people (who think
they may win!) realise how unlikely it is that they would win the
Lottery. First of all, I get them to understand and agree the point that
'random' means that ANY Lottery 'set of numbers' is equally likely to come
out of the machine. Most seem to find it quite easy to agree with that.
I then ask them how likely they think it is that the Lottery draw would
result in (1,2,3,4,5,6) and they generally say something along the lines of
"virtually impossible". It then ought not to be too difficult (although
some can resist!) to get them to realise that it is therefore equally
'virtually impossible' _their_ choice of 6 numbers will win!
However, I bet you couldn't do it again :-)
Kind Regards,
John
----------------------------------------------------------------
Dr John Whittington, Voice: +44 (0) 1296 730225
Mediscience Services Fax: +44 (0) 1296 738893
Twyford Manor, Twyford, E-mail: [log in to unmask]
Buckingham MK18 4EL, UK
----------------------------------------------------------------
******************************************************
Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your
message will go only to the sender of this message.
If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's 'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically to [log in to unmask]
Disclaimer: The messages sent to this list are the views of the sender and cannot be assumed to be representative of the range of views held by subscribers to the Radical Statistics Group. To find out more about Radical Statistics and its aims and activities and read current and past issues of our newsletter you are invited to visit our web site www.radstats.org.uk.
*******************************************************
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Leicestershire County Council - Council of the Year 2009
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________
This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, any reading, printing, storage, disclosure, copying or any other action taken in respect of this e-mail is prohibited and may be unlawful. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender immediately by using the reply function and then permanently delete what you have received.
Incoming and outgoing e-mail messages are routinely monitored for compliance with Leicestershire County Council's policy on the use of electronic communications. The contents of e-mails may have to be disclosed to a request under the Data Protection Act 1998 and the Freedom of Information Act 2000.
The views expressed by the author may not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Leicestershire County Council.
Attachments to e-mail messages may contain viruses that may damage your system. Whilst Leicestershire County Council has taken every reasonable precaution to minimise this risk, we cannot accept any liability for any damage which you sustain as a result of these factors. You are advised to carry out your own virus checks before opening any attachment.
******************************************************
Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your
message will go only to the sender of this message.
If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's
'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically
to [log in to unmask]
Disclaimer: The messages sent to this list are the views of the sender and cannot be assumed to be representative of the range of views held by subscribers to the Radical Statistics Group. To find out more about Radical Statistics and its aims and activities and read current and past issues of our newsletter you are invited to visit our web site www.radstats.org.uk.
*******************************************************
|