Agreed, in my view most of the discussion (including particularly the comments) is conducted in terms of party advantage or giving Nick Clegg a kicking.
The idea that parties that can't persuade people to vote for them shouldn't be declared elected (especially if you agree with them) seems to pass people by.
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-----Original Message-----
From: email list for Radical Statistics [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Russell Ecob
Sent: 12 April 2011 14:41
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: FW: To AV or not to AV?
Allan refers to the economist Kenneth Arrow’s work. However my concern is that we lumber consideration of voting systems unduly by any appeal to rather abstruse criteria (the independence of irrelevant alternatives is one such).
Appealing to pragmatism, if we asked the question – can we develop a system of voting which is at the same time fair (proportional representation – in the sense that the proportion of seats in the representative body for a given political party corresponds to the proportion of – first - votes given that party) and keeps the constituency link (one MP per constituency), a characteristic of UK and US democracies, I believe the answer is yes – even without the additional list vote.
Given this, the problem would be to explain (and sell) this to the Great British Public – or even to one of the political parties and it is here where I despair. I have yet to see any reasoned article on this subject on my written media of choice (Guardian, New Statesman). Of course I may be reading the wrong papers….
Russell Ecob
Ecob Consulting
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From: email list for Radical Statistics [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of [log in to unmask]
Sent: 11 April 2011 21:27
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: FW: To AV or not to AV?
There was an article in Significance last year describing how no voting system is uniformly best. The direct choice we seem to be currently offered is between "single most preferred" and "generally least disliked". As any system is a game with defined rules, I am confident the best games players will win on average - whether or not they are the best representatives.
My logic on how to vote is that if the majority vote FPTP this time we will be lumbered for the foreseeable future with the current system; it's very rarely in the interest of those who have been elected to suggest changing the system. If the majority vote for AV and after a couple of goes it is found to be unsatisfactory, we will have the precedent to vote for another change.
The outcome is probably worth an each-way bet.
Allan
TG > I really cannot decide which way to vote in the referendum. We are asked to choose between two unsatisfactory methods. The only arguments I have seen, for both sides, are assertions, often over long lists of signatories, with very few references to places where the methods are used.
>
> Simulation seems, to me, to be the only way to compare methods. I tried this, basing my prior distributions on the 2010 parliamentary results, This showed a great bias to the liberal democrats. However, I accept that my simulation procedure and my assumptions are too weak even to discuss.
>
> A problem with old age is that I lack resources and energy to pursue the project. I should like to see a well-constructed simulation study of parliamentary elections comparing all possible candidate voting systems. As well as AV and FPTP, these should include the alternative member system (AMS), AV plus, mixed member proportional (MMP), mixed member system (MMS), a regional list, a second ballot (SB), a single transferable vote (STV), a supplementary vote (SV) and some hybrids of these.
>
> Or perhaps, from the study, we could invent a method that is better than any of these? Better in what way? A fairer representation and a stronger government? These two aims are perhaps incompatible.
>
> But does it matter in the long run? Most despots must believe that democracy is the counting of heads regardless of what’s in them.
>
>
>
> Tony Greenfield
> Middle Cottage
> Little Hucklow
> Derbyshire SK17 8RT
> 01298 872326
>
> [log in to unmask]
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_Greenfield
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