I'm a firm believer that if a statistic is being used in the public domain then it should be aligned with the public interpretation of it. The share of the vote currently does not indicate essential parliamentary strength although it is reported as such. Share of first preference could be used in this way with more legitimacy. Either the data needs to change or their needs to be a re-interpretation, either by always representing the data as the expected parliamentary majority (difficult from current 1000 people samples) or a clearer indication of the separation between public support and parliamentary mandate.
At first glance, changing the data seems a good idea but I wonder how difficult it is for AV to be distorted by tactical voting.
Tom
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From: email list for Radical Statistics [[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of John Whittington [[log in to unmask]]
Sent: 11 April 2011 21:38
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: FW: To AV or not to AV?
At 21:26 11/04/2011 +0100, [log in to unmask] wrote:
>The outcome is probably worth an each-way bet.
I'm not sure that such bets are available when there are only two
runners!! If they were, and the odds were set correctly (giving the
bookie a margin) I guess that it would be a guaranteed way of losing money!
Kind Regards,
John
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