Information, and calculation, yes. And imagination?
In practice there is the balance between
'imaginative thought and mechanical calculation'" (Lawson 1990).
Lawson,
B (1990) How Designers Think. Second
edition. Oxford: Butterworth Architecture
> Date: Fri, 18 Mar 2011 08:37:59 -0400
> From: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: Re: On buddhas and tsunami probability calculations
> To: [log in to unmask]
>
> The information about tsunamis is extensive and detailed, and readily
> available to local designers and contractors. It is embedded in their
> practise of civil engineering.
>
> But there are many, many other factors that influence the process. To say
> that using this single data point, of the bronze Buddha that survived, would
> have prevented anything, is too simplistic. To really understand what
> happened that led to this disaster would require understanding at least the
> last 50 years of history of the place in very significant detail, as well as
> understanding the impact of many external influences. The system that led
> Japan to this point is wildly non-linear and complex; without a proper
> model, there's no way we can make any meaningful statements about it.
>
> Cheers.
> Fil
>
> On 18 March 2011 03:05, Kari Kuutti <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
>
> > Engineering calculations are fine, but they are just as good as the
> > starting data and assumptions, and here one thing has struck me as odd.
> >
> > On the same pacific shore just couple of hundred kilometers south of
> > Fukushima (50 km south of Tokyo) is Kamakura Daibutsu, the second largest
> > bronze statue of Buddha in Japan, about 13 meters high. It was casted around
> > 1300, and initially housed in a temple. Buddhist temples are massively
> > built, and they are rather immune to earthquakes. However, in 1495 a
> > tsunami wave wiped the temple off, and the Daibutsu has been standing in
> > open air since then.
> >
> > The site of the Daibutsu is about one kilometer from the shoreline,
> > slightly uphill. It is in a valley like buddhist temples often are, but the
> > valley is not a very narrow one. A wave capable of destroying the
> > twentysomething meter high temple around the statue must have been mighty
> > indeed, at least similar than the one that hit Fukushima, if not even
> > larger.
> >
> > Apparently this experience has not been taken as the starting point in the
> > calculations.
> >
> > I really hope the "the 50" can finally get their beasts tamed; the
> > catastrophe is already bad enough as such without a nuclear accident getting
> > totally out of hands.
> >
> > --Kari Kuutti
> > Universty of Oulu, Finland
> >
>
>
>
> --
> Filippo A. Salustri, Ph.D., P.Eng.
> Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
> Ryerson University
> 350 Victoria St, Toronto, ON
> M5B 2K3, Canada
> Tel: 416/979-5000 ext 7749
> Fax: 416/979-5265
> Email: [log in to unmask]
> http://deseng.ryerson.ca/~fil/
|