*Age and Fertility: Can women wait until their early thirties to try for
a first birth?*
A lecture by John W. `Mac' McDonald, Professor of Longitudinal Social
Statistics, Centre for Longitudinal Studies, Institute of Education, London.
The event will take place in Meeting Room 1.07, University of Edinburgh
Main Library, George Square.
10th January 2011 - 4:00pm - 5:30pm
Places must be booked in advance - http://aqmen.ac.uk/events/mcdonaldjan2011
*Abstract*
Postponing the start of childbearing raises the question of fertility
postponed versus fertility foregone. One of the limitations of previous
studies of "How late can you wait?'' is that any observed decline in the
probability of conception with age could be due to a decline in
fecundability with age or due to a decline in coital frequency with age
or due to both factors.
Using data from a multinational prospective study conducted to determine
the daily probability of conception among healthy subjects, we study the
relationship between age and fecundability for childless women, while
controlling for the pattern of intercourse within a menstrual cycle
relative to day of ovulation. Our analysis is based on a two-population
(fecund, sterile) mixture model that simultaneously combines a
discrete-time hazard model of waiting time to first conception for those
fecund with a logistic regression model for primary sterility.
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Angie Dickson
Administration & Communications Officer
AQMeN
The University of Edinburgh
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