The earliest definite reference that I know of is from Jerzy Neyman:
Neyman, J. (1952). Lectures and Conferences on Mathematical Statistics
and Probability, 2nd edn., pp. 143-154.
Graduate School, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.
(which I'm sure I have "somewhere" -- an increasingly fuzzy concept).
However, I think I have seen that Neyman's use of it goes back to
the 1930s. Neyman definitely uses numbers of storks and babies
(real or fictitious) to make his point.
Ted.
On 26-Oct-10 15:59:45, Nigel Waters wrote:
> Alison,
>
> This should help plus there references therein. It includes a nice data
> set and graph.
>
> Spurious Correlation and the Fallacy of the Ratio Standard Revisited
> Author(s): Richard A. KronmalSource: Journal of the Royal Statistical
> Society. Series A (Statistics in Society), Vol. 156, No. 3(1993), pp.
> 379-392Published by: Blackwell Publishing for the Royal Statistical
> SocietyStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2983064Accessed:
> 26/10/2010 11:49
>
> Cheers, Nigel
>
> On 10/26/2010 10:48 AM, Macfarlane, Alison wrote:
>>
>> There various datasets around showing correlations between numbers of
>> storks and numbers of births, although differences in changes over
>> time. Usually they are described as having been observed in Sweden. I
>> seem to remember one set in a Genstat manual. I have been asked about
>> an unreferenced set I used in an article in abput 1980, although I
>> think it was later. I have been using a version recently to teach
>> abput the Bradfprd Hill criteria.
>>
>> Does anyone have any referenced source of such data?
>>
>> Alison
>>
>> Alison Macfarlane
>> Department of Midwifery
>> City University London
>> Philpot Street, London E1 2EA
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