Hi Clive,

Thanks for your comments. It's not obvious to me that what you call 'configuratively innovative' solutions are such, and because they are configurational, usually they were very predictable at the time using the design methods of the time. It seems much of the claim that innovative designs do not have histories or cannot be predicted may be  due to taking an overly-restrictive disciplinary viewpoint. One of the tools in innovation is arbitrage across disciplines. If a combination of design arbitrage and awareness  of design methods is taken into account prediction prior to innovation is straightforward. This is particularly true for the configurational design approaches to morphological and functional analysis for mapping design solution spaces.

All three of the examples you provided seem to me to be closely based on the histories of their time and were potentially easily predictable to designers of that time who worked across multiple design fields.  

At the time Beck made his underground map, there were established conventions in a variety of drafting fields about different forms of topological representations (maps and diagrams). Beck was an engineering draughtsperson rather than a graphic designer, so he wasn't bound by the culture and conventions of the Graphic/Communication design profession.  Beck's map appears to use  underground sewage drafting conventions.
At the time Beck produced his tube map it would have been relatively straightforward using a basic design method (morphological analysis or factor analysis) to predict that, of the different possibilities for mapping the Tube (the shape of the design solution space), an underground sewage system approach would be one of the most effective.

In the 50s, systematic design practices were well established with new design methods such as Synectics coming out frequently and being tuned and revised.  Combinatorial and factor-based analyses were commonplace for configurational mechanical design considerations, particularly in the vehicle industry.  Early examples of the outcomes of such an approach include the front wheel drive Citroen Traction Avant (1933) and the Alfa 33 (1954).  The Mini was a late UK foray into a well established ultra-compact-car field. In that design context, the  Mini's structure and layout was not particularly innovative as a car form. There had been many other ultra compact cars that solved the space problem similarly to the Mini.  The reasons why  the Mini's engine gearbox layout had not been more widely adopted was due to  three  technical reasons - obtaining reliable front wheel drive and small turning circle with short drive shafts  and reducing intrusion of the wheel arches.  Each of these technical issues  had been recently resolved and at that time simple configurational (morphological)  analysis would have indicated the benefits and opportunities and predicted the potential of the Mini design. The popularity of the Mini was of course helped by the UK government investment  policies intended keep employment high in the Midlands to avoid social instability, and Austin and later owners decisions to sell the Mini at a price lower than it was produced. Both the latter could have been predicted to encourage its sales!

As for the Mini skirt, awareness in the 50s of the take up of 'minimalism'  in Art schools would have offered the basis for a prediction that minimalism  would emerge in ex-students work and it would emerge in obvious ways in fashion. There were additional factors that contribute to any forecast at the time, - the most obvious being that young women throughout the UK had been wearing increasingly short skirts  over the previous decade. Quant and others fashion designers later used these short skirts in fashion shows. In this case, prediction would likely have been easy,  and it is unclear where the credit for the 'innovation' lies. Apparently, Quant named the mini-skirt after the Mini car - another historical link.

Sometimes historical relationships and predictability  are obvious to those involved yet appear hidden to others.  For example, at Rover Cars in the 70s, design researchers under Peter Stubbs worked on improving the  Perbury transmission (previously the Austin Hayes transmission from 1925) and in parallel worked on split differential energy flows in part for hybrid vehicles.  That transmission configuration (now called Torotrak) won the Formula One engine award last year (2009).  The configuration of the 2009 design was predictable to those working on the Perbury transmission in the 1970s  but not perhaps by those outside that design culture.

Best wishes,
Terry
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Dr. Terence Love, FDRS, AMIMechE, PMACM
Director Design-focused Research Group, Design Out Crime Research Centre
Researcher, Digital Ecosystems and Business Intelligence Institute
Associate,  Planning and Transport Research Centre
Curtin University, PO Box U1987, Perth, Western Australia 6845
Mob: 0434 975 848, Fax +61(0)8 9305 7629, [log in to unmask]
Member of International Scientific Council UNIDCOM/ IADE, Lisbon, Portugal
Honorary Fellow, Institute of Entrepreneurship and Enterprise Development
Management School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
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