On 17-Jun-10 09:02:23, Wells, Julian wrote:
> I certainly would deny their right to choose to describe a one per cent
> increase in something as "rocketing", or a 100 per cent increase as
> "slight".
It depends on context ... An anti-aircraft missile is located 6370km
from the centre of the Earth. It is launched at an aircraft flying
at 7000m (= 7km). So it "rockets" from 6370 to 6370 + 0.11% ...
Ted.
> Whether I would want to *prevent* such abuses, given the opportunity,
> is another question: if I was refereeing a submission to a scholarly
> journal I'd certainly have something pointed to say in my report, at
> the very least.
>
> Julian
>
> ________________________________________
> From: Allan Reese (Cefas) [[log in to unmask]]
> Sent: 17 June 2010 09:34
> To: Wells, Julian
> Subject: RE: How to lie with statistics [was: The state of the nation]
>
> You might disagree with their choice but I hope you would not question
> (ie deny) the author's right to choose.
>
> Or am I just out of touch with modern education? I do recall stories
> of
> exam papers being downgraded because
> examiners were too stupid to recognise synonyms of model answers. ;-)
>
> Regards
> Allan
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: email list for Radical Statistics
> [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
> On Behalf Of Wells, Julian
> Sent: 17 June 2010 07:10
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: Re: How to lie with statistics [was: The state of the nation]
>
> Allen writes:
>
> 'You would not question the right of authors to choose words in the
> text, eg between "has crept up", "has increased", "has rocketed".'
>
> Well, I would -- if the numerical increase was, say, 1 per cent rather
> than 100 per cent (or v.v.).
>
> That facts only have meaning in the light of context and interpretation
> does not give one the right to describe them in any old way one likes
> ...
>
>
> Julian
>
>
> Dr Julian Wells
> Acting Director of Studies
> School of Economics
>
> staff web-page: http://fass.kingston.ac.uk/staff/cv.php?staffnum=287
> personal web-site: http://staffnet.kingston.ac.uk/~ku32530
>
> Senior lecturer in economics
> School of Economics
> Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences
> Kingston University
> Penrhyn Road
> Kingston-upon-Thames
> KT1 2EE
> United Kingdom
>
> +44 (0)20 8417 2285
> ________________________________________
> From: email list for Radical Statistics [[log in to unmask]] On
> Behalf Of [log in to unmask] [[log in to unmask]]
> Sent: 16 June 2010 23:37
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: Re: [RADSTATS] How to lie with statistics [was: The state of
> the nation
>
> Scaling pictures linearly with data is a classic error. It raises the
> question of whether specific software was used, in which case blame the
> software writer, or the figures were given to a graphic artist who was
> just innumerate. I think there are psychology studies (but don't have
> refs to hand) showing that viewers compare areas in this situation but
> not exactly. Square root scaling would therefore be better than linear.
> Had they used pictograms (silhouette of wheelchair), readers would be
> psychologically comparing volumes and a cube root transformation would
> be advisable. Making the pies vary in colour and tone exaggerates the
> difference, particularly between 1997 and 2003.
>
>
>
> Note that three discs are used to represent three data items, so the
> data density (cf Tufte) is very low. This is not necessarily bad; you
> might deliberately include such a graph to lighten a text-heavy page.
> Bars would more naturally match the values, and the spacing between
> bars
> could scale with the number of years.
>
> The question for the authors is what message they intended the graphic
> to convey. If it is "alarming growth", they may be justified in adding
> "stress" rather than "distortion" - the assumption that these figures
> are "correct" and must therefore be represented with precision is in
> actuality an assumption. You would not question the right of authors
> to
> choose words in the text, eg between "has crept up", "has increased",
> "has rocketed". My worry with graphics is always that the authors (and
> proof-reading editors - cf the Radstats comment that two parts of
> thereport are inconsistent) are not sensitive to the implicit messages
> in graphs. Too many graphs in publications look like exam scripts -
> you
> guess what they're getting at and give credit for effort!
>
>
>
> Allan
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: email list for Radical Statistics
> [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
> On Behalf Of Ted Harding
> Sent: 16 June 2010 10:40
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: Re: How to lie with statistics [was: The state of the
>
> On 16-Jun-10 08:02:04, Wells, Julian wrote:
>> Yikes! The Cabinet Office people might profitably be directed to the
>> ONS house style guide or its predecessor "Plain Figures", not mention
>> that old faithful "How to Lie with Statistics" (I see from Wikipedia
>> that the latter has been claimed to have sold more copies than any
>> other text on statistics).
>>
>> Julian
>
> I was so struck, looking at the graphic, by the apparent disparity
> between the perceived "sizes" of the circles and the associated
> numbers that I even wondered if the sizes had been deliberately
> fudged! So I did a check. Enlarging the picture and using a ruler,
> I got, for the diameters of the circles:
>
> 1.2m: 42mm
> 1.5m: 53mm
> 1.8m: 64mm
>
> Now:
>
> 1.5/1.2 = 1.25 ; 53/42 = 1.26
> 1.8/1.2 = 1.50 ; 64/42 = 1.52
> 1.8/1.5 = 1.20 ; 64/53 = 1.21
>
> So pretty close agreement between diameter and value (given that
> the edges of the circles were a bit fuzzy anyway).
>
> Which just goes to show (essentially Julian's point) that the eye
> is more influenced by relative areas than by relative linear
> dimensions. Indeed, attempting to estimate "by eye" the relative
> diameters (before using the ruler) I had judged that successive
> circles were more like 1.5 times as wide as their predecessors.
> And that is in keeping with ratios of areas (1.2^2 = 1.44). A nice
> "optical illusion".
>
> Well, now, the Cabinet Office statisticians should of course be
> encouraged to make the areas in the right ratios, rather than
> the diameters, in order to induce appropriate perceptions.
>
> And then they would have to make diameters (presumably the defining
> quantity for producing the graphic) proportional to the square roots
> (which might require a coffee break). And then they would have to
> explain that somehow. Or not -- the report makes no attempt to explain
> the scaling of the circles.
>
> So maybe they wouldn't explain. Then some journalist could do what
> I've just done and then report "The Cabinet Office report includes
> graphics that deliberately play down the massive increase in
> claimants from 1997 to 2009. The increase from 1.2m to 1.8m is
> an increase of 50 per cent. The circles increase in size by just
> [journalist's synonym for 'only'] 22 per cent."
>
> But what journalist is going to pick up on the apparent exaggeration
> that is present in the graphic as presented? Maybe Tim Harford?
>
> So perhaps the C.O. should explain! A simple parenthesis in the
> caption (to the better form of the graphic) would do it:
>
> "Figure 3.1: The numbers of working-age Disability Living
> Allowance claimants have increased by over 40% since 1997,
> from 1.2 million to 1.8 million (areas of circles proportional
> to numbers)."
>
> Or is that too abstruse?
>
> But since they've stated the numbers so clearly, why bother with
> the graphics?
>
> Well, you sort of can't help it once you've woken up a spreadsheet!
> In the memorable words of one of Jasper Carrott's best:
> "Q: Why do dogs lick their ****s? A: Because they can."
>
> I think we have a very long way to go before the public understanding
> of statistical information is informed by presentations which induce
> correct perceptions.
>
> Ted.
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
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