Not sure if Paul is right about the Dark Ages. In fact it might well be the
opposite.
Many other professions are in the same position. I can think of engineers,
lawyers, accountants, medical doctors etc, etc. who all deal with
predictions that are not binary in a right/wrong sense.
In practice they are careful with what they say, when they do say something
they give it as an "opinion" or they place error bars or probability on the
prediction. Geologists tend to make big statements with lots of conviction
when they really mean that on a small amount of dubious data they think that
xx might be the case, and then seek peer challenge to take the discussion
forwards. I have no idea what our earthquake colleagues actually said,
rather than what was reported, but expect that it was less careful than
others might have offered. The reaction is of course over the top and I too
added my signature, but let's take this as a wake-up call to be a little
more scientific and professional when we speak or report to other stake
holders. And let's not forget that we do have an obligation to the other
stake holders who at the end of the day pay our wages.
alan
Dr Alan Gibbs
Director
Midland Valley Exploration
144 West George Street
Glasgow
G2 2HG
tel: 44 (0) 141 332 2681
fax: 44 (0) 141 332 6792
[log in to unmask]
www.mve.com
-----Original Message-----
From: Tectonics & structural geology discussion list
[mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Ryan, Paul (EOS)
Sent: 17 June 2010 19:31
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: about an attack to Science in Italy
It is best to assume that science is threatened and to sign. The
key point, however, is that if scientific predictions are required
by law to be exact, then no scientist worthy of the name can ever
again act on a national body and make (or fail to make) such predictions.
The Dark Ages beckon.
Paul
Paul D. Ryan
EOS, NUI Galway, Ireland.
|