Ben Djulbegovic, Hilda Bastian, Tom Jefferson, Owen Dempsey, have
made many of very interesting points, which I shall ponder.
Unfortunately I don't have access to any comprehensive resource
of evidence about the history of the 'flu "pandemic" (I did try to
follow the early reports of its development on the WHO and some
other sites like Dynamed, but it got difficult to keep track of).

The only contribution I can make to the discussion at the moment
is purely personal and anecdotal.

After the cases of H1N1 had been appearing for a few weeks, it seemed
apparent that mortality at that stage was quite low. Vaccination was
being made available on the UK NHS, and the prospect of the 'flu
turning virulent was being discussed.

My reaction was: "If I don't get vaccinated now, then I'm more likely
to catch it while it is still non-virulent, and thereby acquire an
immunity which, hopefully, may still be 'valid' if it ever does
turn virulent."

So I did nothing. In the event the "pandemic" fizzled out, and I
didn't catch anything. But it does suggests a possible alternative
(level 1 -- intuitive? level 2 -- deliberative?) strategy: If there's
a potential epidemic which may turn nasty, but hasn't yet, then go
out and catch it while it's young.

And that could save a lot of money on vaccines -- you already got
yourself vaccinated for free. But can one see the WHO, or a country's
Health Service, handing out such advice?

But it was the sort of "peasant wisdom" advice which was prevalent
in my parents' generation. Of course try to avoid catching anything
really nasty (e.g. polio); but certainly chickenpox, and even measles,
mumps and rubella, were seen as things to be got out of the way fairly
early in life, thereby acquiring useful notches on the gunstock of
one's immune system. You might be out of action for a couple of weeks,
but after that you're in the clear for life.

Getting them later in life tended to result in much serious outcomes.
The possible emergence of shingles much later in life (resulting from
reactivation of the retained herpes zoster virus after childhood
chickenpox) was regarded as a remote risk, not worth worrying about.

One doesn't want to take such a strategy too far, of course. But,
up to a point and if that point is well-judged, it surely has value.

Having said all that, I may attract criticism! But I do believe that
the normal human body has a robust self-defence system which can be
enhanced if triggered while one is still young enough for it to be
still developing.

Ted.

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Date: 13-Jun-10                                       Time: 18:54:36
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