Sorry, i expressed myself badly. That wasn't quite what i meant.
Obviously when there is a national election there is much more publicity
and urging of people to vote, so the turnout is higher than in local
elections. What i was wondering was whether, once they get to the
polling booth, if people are also having to make choices about voting in
local elections they might start to think in a more 'local' way about
the parties then in a purely national election. I thought it might be
interesting to know whether there is any difference in turnout between
constituencies where there is only a national election and those where
the national election is combined with a local one although admittedly
this would only provide the most indirect light - if any - on this
conundrum. Thanks for your insights into the 2005 patterns in London.
Ursula

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-----Original Message-----
From: email list for Radical Statistics [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
On Behalf Of Martin Rathfelder
Sent: 08 May 2010 15:30
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: How voters make up their minds

I think Ursula has the relationship the wrong way around.  About twice 
as many people usually vote in Parliamentary elections as vote in local 
elections, and many people, especially younger urban more mobile people 
like students, will not even know which local authority area they live 
in.  In interpreting the general election results you need to bear in 
mind that the last election was in 2005 when turnout was very low 
because everyone seemed to agree that the Labour Party would win, and of

course that depressed the Labour vote.  At the same time the Muslim 
voters voted against the war.

Martin Rathfelder
Director
Socialist Health Association
22 Blair Road
Manchester
M16 8NS
0161 286 1926
www.sochealth.co.uk

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Ursula Huws wrote:
> I think you have really put your finger on it. The media coverage
seemed
> to be referring to some sort of hypothetical presidential election but
> of course there is no such thing and in actuality people have to vote
> for specific local candidates and, arguably, many are swayed by who
that
> person is and what the party has done locally. And my hunch would be
> that this sort of local thinking is amplified when a general election
> coincides with local council elections as this one did in many areas.
I
> have just been looking at the London local election results and there
> seems to be a strong link between boroughs where the council has moved
> to overall labour control and a swing to labour (or at least a
> below-average swing away from labour) in the parliamentary election. I
> have not seen this issue discussed in the media (nor have i checked
> whether it applies elsewhere in the country) and wonder if there is
any
> research on it. Could it be that people actually think first about
their
> local council and only second about the national government?
(presumably
> this hypothesis could be partly tested by looking at turnout...). If
> there really is to be another general election in 2010, how might its
> decoupling from the local elections affect the result?
>
> Ursula Huws
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: email list for Radical Statistics
[mailto:[log in to unmask]]
> On Behalf Of Jane Galbraith
> Sent: 08 May 2010 11:16
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: Re: How voters make up their minds
>
> One voter resolved not to vote for any MP  who had voted for the Iraq
> invasion and had not recanted ... but faced with the ballot paper ...
>
> I guess some others, who approved of some Lib-Dem policies on tax and
> trident (or who liked Nick Clegg on TV), still could not quite bring
> themselves to put that cross next to their own Lib-Dem canditate.
>
> What are the odds on another General Election in 2010?
>
> Best wishes,
> Jane
>
> Mrs Jane Galbraith
> Senior Honorary Research Associate
> Department of Statistical Science
> University College London
> Gower Street
> London WC1E 6BT
>
> [log in to unmask]
>
>
>
>
>   
>> Colleagues,
>>
>> I wrote last week about voting behaviour, see below. There was a
>>     
> Guardian
>   
>> Article on Tuesday 4 May (Education) 'You pick up the pencil. Now
what
>>     
> are
>   
>> you  thinking?' Dr Michael Bruter at LSE says that little in depth
>> research
>> about how  voters make up their minds has been done on this since the
>> 1960s.
>> I find  that amazing.
>>
>> There is a five year LSE research study just underway. It covers
>>     
> electoral
>   
>> memory (everything they can remember from past elections),  electoral
>> responsibility (duty to vote) and the extent to which they think
about
>> what the
>> rest of the country is doing while they are voting (including
tactical
>> voting).  Finally they are asked 'funky' questions about what animal
>>     
> they
>   
>> might
>> resemble  and what they drink when they go out.
>>
>> David Drew
>>
>> Ps. The result in Sheffield was that Paul Blomfield (Labour) beat
Paul
>> Scriven (Lib-Dem and Leader of the Council) by 105 votes. We now have
>>     
> a
>   
>> solid
>> Left-Labour MP, anti-Iraq war etc.
>>
>>
>>
>> On 30 April,
>>
>> Colleagues,
>>
>> Doubtless there is a lot of research out there on voting behaviour.
>>     
> But as
>   
>> a Labour Party canvasser, a foot soldier (yes I know there is a lot
>>     
> wrong
>   
>> with Labour but take a careful look at the others) there are a number
>>     
> of
>   
>> questions one asks whilst walking those lonely streets. These
>>     
> include:
>   
>> Does canvassing have an effect? What effect does it have? Is it best
>>     
> to
>   
>> canvass in some areas and not in others? Who are the floating voters?
>>     
> What
>   
>> are their characteristics? Do they really change their minds right at
>>     
> the
>   
>> last
>>  minute? How do we know? What kind of areas do they live in? How can
>> canvassing  best be targeted?
>>
>> I realise from talking to the Labour Party campaign organisers  that
>>     
> they
>   
>> use an area classification system that divides the city areas  into
>>     
> types
>   
>> (presumably by cluster analysis) but am not clear how this is related
>>     
> to
>   
>> voting patterns.
>>
>> Doubtless all these things are taught at my local university
>>     
> (Professors
>   
>> Pattie and Dorling in the geography department). But further
>> clarification
>> would be appreciated.
>>
>> Best wishes
>>
>> David Drew
>> Sheffield Central Constituency
>>
>> Ps The Central Constituency of Sheffield is a fight between Lib-Dems
>>     
> (Paul
>   
>> Scriven, the Council Leader) and Labour (Paul Blomfield, veteran
>> Anti-Apartheid  campaigner replacing Richard Caborn).
>>
>>     
>
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