Hi,
Before you read this I recommend having a look at Susan Hough's book
"Predicting the Unpredictable: The Tumultuous Science of Earthquake
Prediction"
One thing that can be predicted is that such anecdotal stories get a lot
more BBC air time than the more careful, rigorous, statistically-based
studies that show no consistent pattern in such behaviour, and highlight
the influence of retrospective selection bias more generally in the
search for precursors.
Cheers, Ian.
---------------------------------------
Roberto D. Martino wrote:
>
>> Dear all,
>>
>> Here there are an interesting article about toads and the possibility
>> that those nice animals "predict" or "feel" earthquakes several days
>> before the event . Good for a discussion.
>>
>> Best whises,
>>
>> Roberto
>
> PS: Sorry, I sent the pdf but was rejected due to file size. Here are
> the reference:
>>
>> *Grant, R.A. & Halliday, T. "Predicting the unpredictable; evidence of
>> pre-seismic anticipatory behaviour in the common toads". 2010, Journal
>> of Zoology, pages 1-10. doi:10.1111/j.1469-7998.2010.00700.x*
>
>>
>> *************************************
>> Prof. Dr. Roberto Donato Martino
>> Cátedra de Geología Tectónica
>> F.C.E.F. y N.
>> Universidad Nacional de Córdoba
>>
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>> Oficina 6 - 2° Piso
>> Av. Vélez Sarsfield 1611
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>>
>
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