Hi Jon and the list;
I'm really glad you asked this question and loved Ben's philosophical response.
I think I got this from Paul Glasziou about 5 years ago;
Levels of uncertainty
Personal uncertainty - "I don't know, but maybe somebody else does"
Professional uncertainty - "we as a profession don't know"
Stochastic uncertainty - I can't say for sure but the best evidence suggests an X% chance... - This is the one that is associated with the confidence intervals
Value uncertainty - I don't know what I/you value most
I show this to my students as it really puts the emphasis on multiple levels of uncertainty, which they must work with and educate their patients about.
Best wishes,
Dan
Dan Mayer, MD
Professor of Emergency Medicine
Course Director: Evidence Based Health Care
Albany Medical College
47 New Scotland Ave
Mail Code 34
Albany, New York, 12208, USA
Phone: 518-262-6180
FAX: 518-262-5029
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