Rob Curedale wrote:
> Steve jobs couldn't possibly do a worse job managing GM than the
> current management.
Sorry to disagree Rob but you could take the example of Clive Sinclair,
for around 15 years he was an obvious choice because he kept pulling
rabbits out of the hat of the emerging electronics and personal computer
industries. He managed to hit just the right combination of price,
usefulness, technology and audience appeal to make a huge amount of
money and sell an enormous amount of product that turned a whole
generation (in Britain anyway) on to computers.
Then he thought he could do the same trick in the transport industry and
it turns out it that his way of thinking just didn't translate. The
maturity of the industry and marketplace and complexity of the
technology defeated him no matter how much he tried. It's not that his
ideas were not valid in general (the Smart cars and great variety of
folding and electric bikes on the market bear witness to that) but he
couldn't get the winning balance and everybody could see that but him.
Like I said, past performance is no indication of future profits.
And a successful economy or a healthy society depend on lots of people
doing good work. (Barack Obama said that in his inaugural speech as Dori
reminded us). I don't believe that a few geniuses can make that much
difference overall but a large community of skilled, imaginative and
knowledgeable people who work well together might.
I recommend Paul Colinvaux's book "The Fates of Nations: A Biological
Theory of History." He starts with the case of Alexander the Great the
original overachiever and a prime candidate for the one in a million
team. Colinvaux explains very well that Alexander was just the
beneficiary of the emergence of a particular technology. The Macedonians
had perfected the weapons and arts of war, particularly the use of the
long spear by highly trained infantry, that made them pretty well
invincible because the other armies had no offensive or defensive
technique that would work against them.
If Alexander had not been there somebody else could have done the same.
Fast forward to 1945 and the atomic bomb was not the product of some
brilliant entrepreneur, president or general, the atomic bomb had been
forseen for years and the victory went to the large and very skilful
team that perfected it first. The main difference today is that, since
the advent of widespread (not universal) literacy in the enlightenment,
new techniques have spread much faster and the success of the Roman
Armies in dominating the world for centuries cannot be replicated by any
army or business today.
best wishes
Chris
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