Because it is not possible to prove that an intervention does not work, people
who want to promote a therapy can always claim that more research is
necessary.
Wallace Sampson in "Studying herbal remedies." N Engl J Med. 2005 Jul 28;353
(4):337-9. has this to say in an editorial accompanying the publication of a
negative trial on echinacea:
"Since 1999, the NIH has spent almost $1.5 billion in grants for research into
alternative methods. NCCAM has spent almost half that amount and has found
no evidence of efficacy and little evidence of inefficacy. NCCAM has three
more randomized clinical trials of echinacea that are currently active."
If the protocol of a prospective trial had to answer the question: "What is the
value of the information that your trial would provide?", research resources
could be more efficiently used.
But, how should the expected value of information be estimated?
Michael
Dr Michael Power BSc Hons, MB BCh, MD, DCH
Clinical Knowledge Author, Guideline Developer and Informatician
Clinical Knowledge Summaries Service www.cks.library.nhs.uk
Sowerby Centre for Health Informatics at Newcastle Ltd www.schin.co.uk
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