Evidence synthesis, complex modelling and decisions; a statistician's
view of the role of HPV vaccines in reducing cervical cancer risk in
Ireland
Cathal Walsh (Trinity College, Dublin)
2pm Friday, September 26th
A2002
The use of complex models in evaluating health care interventions is
becoming more common. One coherent framework in which we can consider
these models is that of Bayesian inference.
In order to quantify the impact that a proposed scheme of vaccination
against HPV will have on the Irish population, we have combined
information from the outputs of a number of quantitative models. In this
presentation we discuss the practical aspects of our evaluation.
Of particular interest is how we carried out the evidence synthesis to
establish the probability distributions for the inputs for our models,
how we have carried out the sensitivity analysis in partnership with
international colleagues and how we summarise and interpret the outputs
for those involved in the decision making process.
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