How many statistical fallacies can you get in one paragraph?
Is this a record?
Any contenders please?
"Parental background continues to exert a very powerful influence on the
academic progress of children. Those from the poorest fifth of households
but in the brightest group at age three drop from the 88th percentile on
cognitive tests at age three to the 65th percentile at age five. Those from
the richest households who are least able at age three move up from the 15th
percentile to the 45th percentile by age five. If this trend were to
continue, the children from affluent backgrounds would be likely to overtake
the poorer children in test scores by age seven."
LSE Magazine (2008) Low social mobility in UK. LSE Magazine 20(1):33.
(I'm not contending the title: simply the concatenation of three subtle
fallacies in one paragraph - two regression fallacies + one extrapolation
fallacy)
'Disgusted' shamefaced LSE graduate, Tunbridge Wells
PS: I see the Press release using similar words was published last year, and
has been republished around the globe: I am even more 'disgusted' if nobody
has commented on the fallacies before.
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