Royal Statistical Society Merseyside Local Group
Wednesday 21st November 2007 2.00pm
(Tea & Coffee afterwards)
Venue : Penthouse, Maths & Oceanography building University of Liverpool
Please contact Ashley Jones ([log in to unmask]) for further details.
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Can Epidemic Models Assist in Controlling Rising Gun Crime in the UK?
Jayanthi Santhanam (University of Liverpool)
Rising gun crime is one of the important issues confronting the UK Criminal Justice System. In the UK, fifty-four percent of all gun crime occurs in three areas: London, Greater Manchester and West Midlands. Recently a number of novel interventions aimed at reducing gun crime have been proposed e.g. tougher sentencing for serious crime, reducing gun availability and community-based sanctions. The ability to pre-test these control policies, prior to implementation, represents a major step forward in combating gun crime. In this talk we present a novel epidemic model (NSPUR) that allows evaluation of these interventions at the population level. We demonstrate quantitative evaluations of recognised interventions using data from Greater Manchester and provide support for our model results using data from randomised control trials and quasi-experiments from all over the world.
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