Please find below a reminder of the details of the RSS Herts/Beds
Local Group meeting and AGM taking place this Thursday, 17th
May. All are welcome, but for security purposes we need to know in
advance if you intend coming to the meeting - please contact Sue
Welham (e-mail: [log in to unmask])
Please note that the meeting will include a brief AGM which will
include the election of the Committee for 2007/08. If you live or
work within the Herts/Beds area and would like to become involved in
the work of the Local Group, please contact Michaela Cottee (e-mail:
[log in to unmask])
Regards, Michaela
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RSS Herts/Beds Local Group
Date: Thursday 17 May 2007
Place: Ogg Meeting Room, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Herts AL5
2JQ (Meet at Main Reception)
Time: AGM at 5.45 pm; Talk at 6.00 pm
Tea: 5.30 pm
IMPROVING THE FORECASTING OF INTERMITTENT TIME SERIES
John Croston (Retd) C.Eng FBCS FORS
"Improved procedures are described for forecasting from time series
which include intermittent, zero or irregular observations. The input
data is expressed in terms of the cumulative demand and provides an
appropriate environment for both short and long term forecasting and
for identification of change points. CUSUM charts, and criteria of
statistical process control are combined with elements from various
existing forecasting procedures to give a robust system with
substantially reduced errors."
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