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Please find below a reminder of the details of the RSS Herts/Beds Local Group meeting and AGM taking place this Thursday, 17th May. All are welcome, but for security purposes we need to know in advance if you intend coming to the meeting - please contact Sue Welham (e-mail: [log in to unmask]) Please note that the meeting will include a brief AGM which will include the election of the Committee for 2007/08. If you live or work within the Herts/Beds area and would like to become involved in the work of the Local Group, please contact Michaela Cottee (e-mail: [log in to unmask]) Regards, Michaela ===================================================== RSS Herts/Beds Local Group Date: Thursday 17 May 2007 Place: Ogg Meeting Room, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Herts AL5 2JQ (Meet at Main Reception) Time: AGM at 5.45 pm; Talk at 6.00 pm Tea: 5.30 pm IMPROVING THE FORECASTING OF INTERMITTENT TIME SERIES John Croston (Retd) C.Eng FBCS FORS "Improved procedures are described for forecasting from time series which include intermittent, zero or irregular observations. The input data is expressed in terms of the cumulative demand and provides an appropriate environment for both short and long term forecasting and for identification of change points. CUSUM charts, and criteria of statistical process control are combined with elements from various existing forecasting procedures to give a robust system with substantially reduced errors."