"+/- 400 ppmv - which we reach in 10 years - is probably the atmospheric
accumulation maxim under which we can hope to avoid dangerous rates of
climate change"
It's even worse than this. The 400ppm is carbon dioxide *equivalent*
which means probably 350ppm CO2 (though there are problems with any
simple relationship between the global warming effect of CO2 and other
gases because of varying residence times in the atmosphere). In other
words, we are *probably* already beyond the point at which dangerous
climate change will be triggered, some time in the future (how long we
don't know). How do we deal with that? The per capita CO2 emissions of
China are probably already too great (though their per capita energy use
is still low, but they produce lots of CO2 because they use lots of coal)
On that cheery note, I'll say goodnight!
Chris
Aubrey Meyer wrote:
> In the light of the list-feedback to 'the way ahead'
>
> and in view of the remarks made by
>
> Mrs Beckett,
> Sir David King and
> James Lovelock [Start the Week R4 09.00] this morning,
>
> under the heading:
>
> "Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change"
>
> I am repeating my request to crisis-forum reader/writers to respond to
> the content of the briefing at: - www.gci.org.uk/briefings/FRED.pdf
> <http://www.gci.org.uk/briefings/FRED.pdf>
>
> specifically on the points concerning
>
> [1] the stock:flow relationship between emissions and concentrations
> of GHG.
>
> [2] the in/constancy of this relationship and its importance to C&C
> advocacy. The now aggravated rate of accumulation that seems to be
> coming about and the projection of this, is fundamental to this debate.
>
> The government scientists have known about this for at least a decade,
> yet it is only now that the government's position says: -
>
> [1] "the problem seems to be more serious than we preveiously said";
>
> [1] +/- 400 ppmv - which we reach in 10 years - is probably the
> atmospheric accumulation maxim under which we can hope to avoid
> dangerous rates of climate change
>
> [2] but we cannot hope for less than 550 ppmv [King]
>
> [3] nuclear power does not avoid dangerous climate change, but [if you
> are Jim Lovelock] it establishes a pocket of western civilization in
> the UK, where the lights remain on in an otherwise darkening world.
>
> Saying 'no/yes' to nuclear and yes to <> 550 ppmv is not a strategy,
> it is WASP delusions and mistaking the finger for the moon.
>
> [i.e. barking]
>
> Aubrey
>
> */Chris Church <[log in to unmask]>/* wrote:
>
> This is the news release about the book which has led to the
> current flurry
> of interest...
>
> 30/01/2006 12:48 Department for Environment, Food And Rural Affairs
> (National)
> HOW MUCH CLIMATE CHANGE CAN WE TAKE? - DEFRA LAUNCHES NEW BOOK
>
> Over the last year we have seen growing evidence of climate
> change. Indeed,
> statistics suggest that 2005 is the second warmest year on record.
> The
> Arctic sea ice shrank to its lowest extent last summer and
> devastating
> hurricanes show how sensitive even developed societies are to extreme
> weather.
>
> Temperatures are expected to continue to rise and extreme events
> are likely
> to become more frequent with climate change. But how much climate
> change can
> we take? How can we avoid levels which can be considered
> dangerous? The
> "Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change" book, which is being launched
> today by
> Defra, explores these questions.
>
> The book gives an account of the most recent developments on the
> science of
> climate change, explores how much climate change is too much and
> how can we
> avoid it. It examines the consequences of different levels of
> climate change
> in terms of impacts for different sectors and regions, as well as
> the world
> as a whole. And it considers technological options that can be
> deployed to
> achieve different levels of climate change as the world moves to a
> lower
> carbon economy.
>
> The book builds on the scientific findings presented at the "Avoiding
> Dangerous Climate Change" conference, which took place at the Met
> Office,
> Exeter in February 2005 at the start of the UK's G8 Presidency.
>
> Prime Minister Tony Blair said the Exeter conference provided a
> scientific
> backdrop to the whole of the UK's G8 Presidency and the Summit at
> Gleneagles.
>
> Writing in the foreword of the book, Mr Blair said: "At the
> Gleneagles
> meeting the leaders of the G8 were able to agree on the importance of
> climate change, that human activity does contribute to it and that
> greenhouse gas emissions need to slow, peak and reverse. All G8
> countries
> agreed on the need to make substantial cuts in emissions and to
> act with
> resolve and urgency now.
>
> "This book will serve as more than a record of another conference
> or event.
> It will provide an invaluable resource for all people wishing to
> enhance
> global understanding of the science of climate change and the need
> for
> humanity to act to tackle the problem."
>
> Environment Secretary Margaret Beckett said: "I am very pleased
> that the
> book has been prepared in such a short time following the
> ground-breaking
> conference on Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change.
>
> "The conference provided an important scientific context for our
> G8 sessions
> last year and illustrates very clearly the urgency with which the
> world has
> to tackle climate change."
>
> Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, chief editor of the book,
> said: "We
> hope that this book will make a significant contribution to the
> scientific
> and policy debate on what constitutes dangerous climate change."
>
> Notes to Editors:
>
> 1 The book, "Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change" has been prepared
> by an
> editorial board, led by Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, and is
> published by Cambridge University Press, price £70. More details are
> available at http://www.cambridge.org/0521864712 A pdf of the book
> will be
> available later today on the Defra website.
>
> 2 A document to go with the "Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change
> Book" has
> today been released by Defra. It contains a foreword by Dennis
> Tirpak, chair
> of the conference international scientific steering committee and an
> executive summary of book. It can be found on the Defra website at
> http://www.defra.gov.uk/corporate/publications/pubcat/env.htm#climate
>
> 3 The book is being launched tonight at a reception at the Royal
> Society,
> where speakers will include David Vaughan, British Antarctica
> Survey; Carol
> Turley, Plymouth Marine Laboratory; Rachel Warren, University of
> East Anglia
> and Terry Barker, University of Cambridge.
>
> 4 The International Symposium on Stabilisation of Greenhouse Gas
> Concentrations - Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change - took place at
> the
> invitation of the British Prime Minister Tony Blair under the
> sponsorship of
> Defra at the Met Office, Exeter on February 1-3, 2005. Information
> on the
> conference is available at http://www.stabilisation2005.com
>
> 5 Follow-up events to the Conference were held at the meeting of the
> Subsidiary Bodies of the United Nations Conference on Climate Change
> (UNFCCC) in June and at the Conference of the Parties to the
> UNFCCC in
> Montreal in December.
>
> 6 The book will provide input into the UNFCCC's Fourth Assessment
> Report,
> which will be launched in 2008.
>
>
>
> Aubrey Meyer
> GCI
> 37 Ravenswood Road
> LONDON E17 9LY
> Ph 0208 520 4742
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