At 10:27 04/11/05 +0000, Ray Thomas wrote:
>I suspect that the bookies at my local dog track are statistically
>uneducated. But I imagine that the level of performance of these bookies,
>however measured, is well above that achievable by a statistician who has
>just strayed into this area.
The reason for this is that bookies do not work by matching their expectations with yours, but by trading numerous clients against each other while taking a skim. Technically, they want a "balanced book" (plus margin). Alternatively, the gamble may be explicitly in the bookies' favour, eg roulette, and is presented as entertainment. Attempts to manipulate the odds toward the client are frowned on - you won't have a leg to stand on. There's an excellent book "The Punter's Revenge" which explains the various forms of gambling, how you might try to win, and how you will be detected.
***********************************************************************************
This email and any attachments are intended for the named recipient only. Its unauthorised use, distribution, disclosure, storage or copying is not permitted. If you have received it in error, please destroy all copies and notify the sender. In messages of a non-business nature, the views and opinions expressed are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect those of the organisation from which it is sent. All emails may be subject to monitoring.
***********************************************************************************
******************************************************
Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your
message will go only to the sender of this message.
If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's
'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically
to [log in to unmask]
*******************************************************
|