At 11:51 22/01/04 +0000, Bland, M. wrote:
>I thought members might be interested in some data. In 1996, ... the
>probability of a cot death is 1 in 649489/394 = 1,648. If deaths were
>independent, which they are not because there are familial risk factors,
>the risk that a family of two babies would have two cot deaths would be 1
>in 1,648*1,648 = 2,715,904. Presumably some other adjustment was applied
>for social factors as the figure given in the press is said to apply to
>`well-to-do families'. .....
>I thought that the figure of 1 in 73000000 was far too small a probability,
>whatever it purported to be the probablity of..
As Kevin has explained to us, the 1 in 73 million figures comes directly
from the CESDI report. It does indeed relate to a subgroup (those families
without three major risk factors) for whom the risk is estimated as 1 in
8543, which they (CESDI) then (obviously inappropriately) square to get '1
in 73 million'.
Kind Regards
John
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