Apologies for a lack of clarity in my message of 9 Nov. The situations in
Iraq and Chechnya are so parallel that my mind jumped a few stages and my
message did not make clear that the final paragraphs were intended to refer
to the elections promised in Iraq.
This promise of elections has become the justification for the second war in
Iraq. The second war in Chechnya started in 1999 had a parallel
justification. But the benefits of the elections held in Chechnya in 2003
have been limited to the provision of statistics. The elections have not
been fair in any sense, But the statistics have given evidence on the
extent of vote rigging and, in stimulating the production of population
statistics, that provide useful information such as that on the number of
refugees (or 'internally displaced persons' as they have become known as)
and information relevant to the number of deaths.
It seems very doubtful that elections will be held in Iraq in January as
promised. But when and if elections are held in Iraq the most predicatable
benefit is likely to be statistical evidence - just as this seems to have
been the only benefit in Chechnya.
You can't have elections without statistics on the number of votes that
relate to defined constituencies. And it will be difficult to produce
credible figures for voting unless there are also statistics for the numbers
entitled to vote. .The credibility and quality of such statistics would
provide important evidence for assessing the achievements of the invasion
of Iraq and in particular for assessing the justification for the 'second
war' centred on Falluja. If there are statistics of the numbers entitled to
vote it is reasonable to expect the the production of figures for the
numbers of internally displaced persons so that we can get an idea of the
scale of disruption associated with the 'second war'.
Statistical systems are the hallmark of organised societies. And it is
difficult to imagine that Iraq will be able to display such hallmarks for
January 2005.
Put this another way. Isn't the promise of elections in January and
indication of a scale of self-deception by Blair and Bush that is even
greater than that leading to the original invasion?
Ray Thomas
35 Passmore, Tinkers Bridge, Milton Keynes MK6 3DY
Email: [log in to unmask]
Tel 01908 679081 Fax 01908 550401
*********************************
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ray Thomas" <[log in to unmask]>
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Tuesday, November 09, 2004 9:40 PM
Subject: Re: Cluster analysis
> Does Blair's denial of evidence on the number of Iraqi deaths make him the
> author of the biggest single lie uttered by a Western political leaders?
>
> George Washington, for example, did not attempt to deny that the cherry
> tree
> had been chopped down!
>
> Blair's attempt to belittle statistical evidence on casualties in Iraq
> seems
> to go further in denial than even the Russian Government.
>
> Russian authorities have never made any attempt to keep a record of the
> number of casualties in Chechnya. Just as the US or the UK have made no
> attempt to keep a record of the number of deaths they have inflicted on
> Iraq. Belligerent governments feel no responsibilities to the
> populations
> that they claim to be liberating or saving from terrorism. But there is a
> variation in the response to independent estimates of deaths.
>
> The Memorial Human Rights organisation in Moscow published a survey-based
> estimate for Grozny, capital of Chechnya, for the period Dec 94 to March
> 95
> of 25-29 thousand deaths - excluding military and insurgents. The Russian
> Government did not query this estimate. But the head of Demographic
> Statistics asked the Memorial Centre for its data and made its own
> estimate
> of 30-40 thousand. In the 1990s it appears that Russia was on the way to
> achieving an independent statistical service!
>
> This promise does not appear to have been maintained in the second Chechen
> war that started in 1999. Government under Putin seems to be combining
> the stupidity of the slogan 'war against terrorism' with the secrecy of
> the
> Soviet KGB era. But you can get a fair picture of the scale of the
> catastrophic events in Chechnya, and the failure of 'elections' to remedy
> the situation, at http://www.mhg.ru/publications/33D4760. I can email
> you
> an English version.
>
> Elections would at least bring some statistical evidence. There would
> have
> to be figures for the numbers entitled to vote and for the number of votes
> cost for different candidates. If the procedures followed are supported
> by
> international observers we might be able to see elections as having been a
> way forward.
>
> But that is a very big IF!. The UK Governments current tendencies seem to
> promise more denials and cover-ups that will preclude properly observed
> election procedures and the production of meaningful statistics..
>
> Ray Thomas
> 35 Passmore, Tinkers Bridge, Milton Keynes MK6 3DY
> Email: [log in to unmask]
> Tel 01908 679081 Fax 01908 550401
>
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