Dear Keith,

Rob is referring to a passage in my earlier response to him
where I referred to studies by several researchers on new product
failure rates.

"One study suggested that of new product ideas that move beyond the
proposal stage, 57% achieve technical objectives, 31% enter
full-scale marketing and only 12% earn a profit (Mansfield, et al.,
1971: 57). According to some experts, over 80% of all new products
fail when they are launched, and another 10% fail within five years
(Edwards 1999, Lukas 1998, McMath 1998)."

Edwards, Cliff. 1999. "Many products have gone the way of the Edsel."
Johnson City Press, 23 May 1999, 28, 30.

Lukas, Paul. 1998. "The Ghastliest Product Launches." Fortune, 16
March 1998, 44.

Mansfield, Edwin, J. Rapaport, J. Schnee, S. Wagner and M. Hamburger.
1971. Research and Innovation in Modern Corporations. New York:
Norton.

McMath, Robert. 1998. What Were They Thinking? Marketing Lessons I've
Learned from Over 80,000 New Product Innovations and Idiocies. New
York: Times Business.

These figures may be wrong or out of date, but these figures report
the findings of reasonably empirical research.

I tend to agree with Rob that failure is necessary to success as
part of the learning cycle. My hope is that we can do better ...
getting down to a 70% failure rate or even a 65% failure rate
would offer major benefits in sustainable development, improvements
to environmental impact, reduced waste, and increased productivity.

All designed artifacts fail eventually. The point of design research
in improved performance along the way.

Meet you on the bridge.

Yours,

Ken


Keith Russell wrote:

>Dear Rob
>
>How would we know that 80% of designs fail? Surely 100% of designs
>fail or, as Bob Dylan says:
>
>"There aint no success like failure and failure aint no success at all."
>
>The famous stone bridge across the river Wey is made of wood.
>
>The famous golden buddha was always known as being made of bronze -
>it was a buddhist joke - turns out it was made of gold - it was a
>double joke.
>
>keith russell
>OZ newcastle
>
>>>>  Rob Curedale <[log in to unmask]> 09/21/04 22:23 PM >>>
>All written material is to an extent fiction and fiction can convey
>misconceptions as well as usefull ideas. This may explain also why 80%
>of new designs fail. Failure is a necessary part of success and
>innovation.
>