The Centre for Bayesian Statistics in Health Economics (CHEBS) at the
University of Sheffield is hosting a series of Focus Fortnights in which to
develop Bayesian methodology in Health Economics. The series is set to
continue with a Focus Fortnight on ‘Patient simulation modelling in health
care’. Professor Ruth Davies (University of Warwick) and Professor Stephen
Chick (INSEAD, France) will be visiting CHEBS between October 4 – October
15. During the visit they will be working closely with members of the
CHEBS team and with other external colleagues who have a particular
interest in patient simulation modelling.
We are currently thinking about 3 questions:
1) In what circumstances is a patient level simulation model necessary
as opposed to a simpler cohort model?
2) How many simulations are necessary at the patient level (first
order)to ensure convergence; and how many simulations are necessary to
investigate parameter uncertainty using probabilistic sensitivity analysis
(second order)?
3) When are emulators (replacing the patient level simulation model
with an analytic formula e.g. using Bayesian non linear regression
techniques)helpful and which form of emulators provide the most efficient
solutions?
Dissemination Workshop:
On Tuesday 12th October, CHEBS will be holding a one-day dissemination
workshop which academics and other non-industry representatives are
invited to attend. The aim of this workshop is to discuss and develop the
methodology behind patient simulation modelling in health care. This
workshop will include presentations by Ruth Davies and Stephen Chick, and
Marc Kennedy (University of Sheffield) will be demonstrating free software
he has developed for implementing Gaussian process meta-models. Lunch will
be provided. The full programme for this workshop is currently being
devised and will be circulated in due course.
If you would like to attend the dissemination workshop, please inform
Janice Whittaker ([log in to unmask]). If you would be interested
in participating in other ways during the Focus Fortnight or would like
further information, please contact either Alan Brennan
([log in to unmask]) or Jeremy Oakley ([log in to unmask]).
______________________________________________________________
Jeremy Oakley
Department of Probability and Statistics
University of Sheffield
Hicks Building
Sheffield S3 7RH, UK
Phone: +44 114 222 3853
Fax: +44 114 222 3759
http://www.shef.ac.uk/personal/s/st1jeo/
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