Second announcement of TED Workshop

GRAPHICAL MODELLING OF DEPENDENT UNCERTAINTIES FOR DECISION SUPPORT IN
PUBLIC POLICY
23-26 August 2004
Gartmore House, Gartmore , Loch Lomond and The Trossachs National Park,
Scotland

For more information see

http:www.managementscience.org/TED.html


Participants include:

Simon Wilson (Trinity College, Dublin, Ireland)
Joe Whittaker (Lancaster University, UK)
TimMilan Studeny (Institute of Information Theory and Automation, Prague,
Czech Republic)
Jim Smith (Warwick University, UK)
Prakash P. Shenoy (Aalborg University, Denmark)
Fabrizzio Ruggeri (CNR IMATI, Milan, Italy)
Daniel Lewandowski (Delft University, The Netherlands)
Pedro Larrañaga (University of the Basque Country, San Sebastian, Spain)
Dorota Kurowicka (Delft University, The Netherlands)
Michael Goldstein (Durham University, UK)
Roger Cooke (Delft University, The Netherlands)
Ulrich Callies (GKSS-Institute for Coastal Research, Germany)
Concha Bielza (Madrid Technical University, Spain)
Valentin Bertsch (University of Karlsruhe, Germany)
Tim Bedford (Strathclyde University, UK)

Workshop aims
This workshop is proposed as a technical workshop designed to further
progress in supporting e-democracy through the Bayesian paradigm.

Graphical models of dependent uncertainties have become a popular
methodology in the areas of uncertainty and decision analysis. Bayesian
networks are perhaps the best known, but other graphical methods such as
Markov trees, vines, dependence graphs and Bayes-linear nets have also been
developed.

The topic to be explored during this workshop is the extent to which such
graphical models can be used to support uncertainty modelling for public
policy decisions. Such decision problems are highly complex with
difficulties concerning problem structuring and uncertainties. Typical
difficulties are (1) the detection of the probabilistic conditional (in)
dependencies, (2) the construction of the structure taking into account the
varying requirements of stakeholders, and (3) the management of continuous
and mixed (random or decision) variables

The workshop will bring together researchers coming from the various fields
devoted to structural learning, decision modelling, and uncertainty
modelling. Work addressing graphical modelling with emphasis on the
following are encouraged:

* New graphical models
* Conditional independence
* Minimum information models
* Continuous and mixed distribution modelling
* Monte Carlo and MCMC simulation
* Structural learning (model search strategies) and parametric learning
* Models with constraints (asymmetries, impossible scenarios...)
* Elicitation protocols; heuristics and biases
* Distributed decision making

The workshop is supported by the "Towards an Electronic Democracy" project
of the ESF.

Organising Committee
The organising committee is Tim Bedford (Strathclyde), Concha Bielza
(Technical Univ of Madrid). Roger Cooke (TU Delft), and Jim Q. Smith
(Warwick).

Dates
23-26 August 2004

Format of the workshop
The workshop is intended to provide the opportunity for participants to
work together. Hence there will be a very limited number of presentations
from the invited speakers, leading researchers in the area of graphical
modelling. It is a single-track workshop, with no parallel sessions.
Researchers will be encouraged to begin with collaboration during the
meeting, and the facilities at the location will be used to encourage this.

Participation and cost
The workshop will be restricted to a maximum of about 30 participants. The
cost of the workshop - including accommodation and all meals during the
meeting - is £300.

Location
The workshop will be held at Gartmore House, a Victorian stately home in
the Loch Lomond National Park to the north of Glasgow. It has magnificent
views across 22 miles of beautiful Scottish countryside. This is now a
centre providing space for small conferences, run by a non-profit
charitable trust. Gartmore House is a short walk away from the conservation
village of Gartmore, where the village pub and shop/postoffice can be
found. A minibus service will be provided to bring participants to and from
Gartmore House. More information about Gartmore House can be found at its
website, http://www.gartmorehouse.com. Information about the village of
Gartmore and its history can be found at www.gartmore-village.co.uk/.
http://www.aberfoyle.co.uk/


Getting there
There are three airports which can be used to get to Gartmore House:
Glasgow Prestwick (http://www.gpia.co.uk/), Glasgow International
(www.baa.com/main/airports/glasgow) and Edinburgh International
(www.baa.com/main/airports/edinburgh). As well as many direct flights by
conventional carriers, these airports are served by several low-cost
airlines such as Ryanair and Easyjet. It is possible to rent a car at any
of these airports, with EasyCar at Glasgow Airport giving low prices (book
through easycar.com).

From Glasgow Prestwick there is a train connection to Glagsow Central
Railway Station. A short bus route connects Glasgow International with
Glagsow Central Railway Station. A minibus will be available to take
participants to Gartmore House from Glagsow Central Railway Station. Times
will be made known nearer to the conference. From Edinburgh it is possible
to take either a bus or train to Glasgow, or to Stirling, and from there a
bus to Gartmore.  There is a bus service from Glasgow Buchanan Bus Station
to Gartmore. Public transport information can be found at
www.travelinescotland.com.

Important Dates:
Participation in this event is strictly limited in order to promote a tight-
knit, friendly working environment. You are therefore encouraged to
register as soon as possible.

The last date for workshop and accommodation registration is 15 June 2004.

A registration form will be made available via this website soon, and
payment can be made by cheque or credit card.


Workshop proceedings
There will be no formal proceedings as such. The workshop organisers will
endeavour to publish a collection of papers presented at the meeting, or
developed at the meeting, in a special issue of a relevant journal.

Contact information local organiser
Prof Tim Bedford
Prof of Decision and Risk Analysis
Dept of Management Science
40 George St
Glasgow G1 1QE
Tel 00-44-141-548-2394
Fax 00-44-141-552-6686
Email: [log in to unmask]

Information about TED:
The European Science Foundation (ESF) has established the programme
"Towards Electronic Democracy: Internet-based Complex Decision
Support (TED)" to run from 2003-2006 with the objective of discussing and
evaluating how advances in interactive decision analytic tools might help
develop inclusive e-democratic systems which evolve their electorates more
fully in decision making.
Further info on the TED program is at
http://bayes.escet.urjc.es/ted/index.html or via the ESF website
http://www.esf.org/ted