I'm puzzled by several of the mailings, which seem to argue for the use of
statistical analysis as an authoritative method that non-experts should not
be able to challenge. I'm sure that this is conditioned by the political
content of the debates, but we need to separate that out from the
consideration of the role of social statistics.
a) In relation to Iraq, the government's comments on the small sample base
and consequently wide confidence intervals are perfectly legitimate. I've
argued in a previous mailing that the estimated numbers are not what
matters: it's the indication the survey offers of issues which have been
missed by other methods. There is no inconsistency between those two
positions.
b) In relation to the US election, we know that opinion polls, and exit
polls are vulnerable to systematic biases. The discrepancy gives us reason
for doubt but does not establish conclusively that the exit polls are
correct while the official result is wrong.
a) Ray Thomas writes: "It is well established in Law that Statistics is
unreliable, deceptive and misleading." Of course it is, and it should be.
In criminal law the focus falls on the possibility of convicting an
individual, and probabilistic arguments are intrinsically unjust. Do we
really want people to be convicted on the basis that someone of their age,
nationality and social class probably did it?
What the three issues seem to me to have in common is that the writers are
claiming a much greater degree of certainty than social statistics can
possibly support. The argument that only experts can debate statistics is
particularly dangerous - I've heard this, for example, from Eysenck on IQ.
If we start to claim that social statistics are solid, positive proof of
issues, it seems to me that we remove the possibility of criticising the use
of statistics by people with opposing political views, and undermine much of
the purpose of Radical Statistics as a group.
Paul Spicker
Professor of Public Policy
Centre for Public Policy and Management
The Robert Gordon University
Garthdee Road
Aberdeen AB10 7QE
Scotland
Tel: +44 12243120
Fax: + 44 12243434
Website: http://www.rgu.ac.uk/publicpolicy/
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