There is no disputing the value of detailed census data.  Many members of
this list must, like me, have built their careers on the basis of social
investigations based on the use of detailed census data.  But it is also
true that the ONC of 2001-2003 goes quite against Radstats foundation
principles that stressed concern with 'The mystifying use of technical
language ... the lack of control by the community of the aims of statistical
investigations and the way they are conducted ... etc etc.'

The ONC is the largest single example of the substitution of statistical
estimation for social investigation that has yet occured in the UK.   All
the documents that have already been produced to justify the methods used in
the ONC are in language that is incomprehensible to the large majority of
the population.   And it seems, judging from the continued decline in maths
students and teachers, the language will be incomprehensible to a growing
proportion of the population in the future.

Yet the ONS persistently declines to make direct investigation of reasons
for the low response rates among what it calls 'hard to enumerate groups'.
Governments statisticians and others just shake their heads and mutter
regretfully 'It is happening everywhere'.   The outcome of this substitution
of statistical estimation for social investigation had been to substantially
reduce estimates of the total population and to conclude that 800,000 of the
hardest to enumerate groups have emigrated.

Emigration on this scale is not corroborated by other sources of
information.  If hundreds of thousands of men in went abroad for a visit but
then decided to stay there must be hundreds of thousands of girl-friends and
wives who must feel deserted.    Is there any evidence of the existence of
hundreds of thousand of girl friends and wives in this kind of situation?

Won't this doubt about the detailed census results cloud investigations of
matters like child poverty, caring, and of course, migration?

Ray Thomas, Social Sciences, Open University
Tel: 01908 679081 Fax 01908 550401
Email: [log in to unmask]
35 Passmore, Milton Keynes MK6 3DY
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-----Original Message-----
From: Ludi Simpson [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
Sent: 15 January 2003 09:57
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: ONE NUMBER CENSUS COVER-UP?

The first social, economic and housing statistics from the census will
be released on Feb 13th. The margins of accuracy on the total population
do not detract from the enormous benefit of these new data. They are the
richest source of social composition covering all parts of the UK, and
are more easily available than any other official data set. The figures
issued on 13th February and over the next 3 months will answer your
questions on child poverty, housing and illness, caring and employment,
race and migration, ....

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