Oh Dear! As already observed it is difficult to say anything in this area
without being misrepresented.
I don't doubt the low fertility rate in the UK - and note that it is even
lower in Italy and Russia, and maybe in some other European countries.
Having
lived in the UK's fastest growing new town for a few decades I don't have
much in the way of doubts about the economic benefits of migration!
Especially planned kind of migration of which Britains new towns provided.
My particular concerns are the evidence relevant to the labelling of
statistics as invalid. I don't have any basis for disagreeing with your
generalision that "problem with Coleman/Migration Watch UK is that its
measures are invalid, inconsistent and speculative and may well rest more on
political expediency than sound research." But I don't have much basis for
agreeing either! Seems to me that the generalisation points to the
inadequacy of the statistical evidence.
Surely the primary source for combatting invalid measures in this area
should be the 2001 census results. These results should inform of the
present position or at least the position in 2001. Are these results
consistent with the Coleman/Migration Watch measures?
The International Passenger Survey is not regarded as a reliable source for
migration issues. According to the ONS the IPS does not give us a
reliable picture of where we have got to according to the 2001 Census. So
it is surely doubtful whether it can be made a reliable source for future
migration statistics?.
Censuses of population should provide more reliable information. Census
results can be checked with other sources - such as administrative
statistics and (for native emigrants) the censuses taken in other countries.
Ray Thomas, Faculty of Social Sciences
Open University,
35 Passmore, Tinkers Bridge, MK6 3DY
Tel 01908 679081 Fax 01908 550401
Email: [log in to unmask]
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