A report by the Commission on the Westminster Census results available at
http://www.statscom.org.uk/news/news.htm gives as clear and detailed
explanation of the methods used in the 2001 Census as we are ever likely to
get.   The core problem associated with the degree of independence of the
Census Coverage Survey and the Census itself is well described.
"If the CCS misses some people but there is no particular tendency for these
to have been people who were missed in the Census, then still independence
holds. If however the people missed are disproportionately the same people
as missed in the Census, then the independence assumption is invalid.
Intuitively, it seems likely that some of those missed by the Census - those
who wanted to avoid being identified for example - had more than an average
chance of being missed by the CCS. So independence is not likely to be a
totally valid assumption."     Quite.

The Report also reveals a more fundamental weakness:

" Though several London boroughs offered help to carry out the Census based
on their local knowledge, the Office for National Statistics took the view
that this would not be appropriate because local authorities had a vested
financial interest in the population count."

In other words, one of the reasons for the lowest ever census response rate
is that public officials don't trust each other.   I can't recall that any
of the Protocols for National Statistics said anything on this topic.

So why only two and a half cheers for this Report?

The major omission is that it says nothing about the 600,000 to 800,000
youngish men who, according to the ONS, told IPS interviewers that they were
going to Spain/Australia/India/S Africa/US, etc. for a holiday, but then
changed their mind and emigrated.   There has yet to be a shred of evidence
from outside the census team to support this allegation.

A social pattern on this scale would at least be enough to challenge the
adage that it is the women's privilige to change her mind.      Does anyopne
know of lovers,wives, or girl friends who have complained that 'He said he
was going for a holiday, but he never came back'.

If the ONS is right there must be about half a million youngish women who
would be justified in making such a complaint.

Has anyone met any of them?

Ray Thomas
35 Passmore, Tinkers Bridge, Milton Keynes MK6 3DY
Email: [log in to unmask]
Tel 01908 679081  Fax 01908 550401



















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