As one who has conducted a Delphi study, Taylor HA. Hansen GH. Perceived
characteristics of successful family practice residency maternity care
training programs. Family Medicine. 29(10):709-14, 1997 Nov-Dec., I hope I
can phrase this question/statement without causing too much angst among the
qualitative researchers on the list.
My understanding is that the Delphi methodology was originally developed and
used by the RAND corporation to assist military planners in forecasting
future wartime scenarios. Its utility lies in hypothesis generation rather
than in hypothesis testing. The anonymous, iterative consensus building
process of a Delphi study begins and ends with the knowledge and creativity
of the expert panel members. Thus, per the EBM hierarchy of evidence, even
a well conducted Delphi study remains in the realm of expert opinion and
should only be used to fill in gaps where higher levels of evidence are not
available or, as in the case of our study, where hypotheses are generated
for further testing.
This leads me to wonder - What is the message for our EBM learners? Is it
that some expert opinion is better then other expert opinion? That a well
conducted Delphi study constitutes better expert opinion than a less
structured consensus panel or a single expert's opinion? Is it that we
should not look to the expert's opinion unless we have first exhausted
higher levels of evidence? Is it both?
One can certainly teach learners to critically appraise the rigor of the
Delphi methodology; the lengths that the researchers went to identify the
"invisible college of experts", the methods used to determine the original
open-ended research questions, the methods for combining like answers and
how consensus was determined for key items. My position is that the most
important lesson for the EBM learners is that even the best Delphi study
still represents expert opinion and should be treated as such in individual
and institutional clinical decision-making.
Very Respectfully,
__________________________________
Harry (Chip) Taylor, MD, MPH
CDR, MC, USN
Medical Director
Navy Medicine Office of Homeland Security
Bureau of Medicine and Surgery
2300 E Street, NW
Washington DC 20372
(202) 762-3116 DSN: 762 Fax: 3320
The mission of the Navy Medicine Office of Homeland Security is to
coordinate a comprehensive organizational strategy to prepare for,
prevent, protect against, respond to and recover from threats or attacks
that involve the Navy Medical Department.
-----Original Message-----
From: WSM Summerskill, Clinical Medicine
[mailto:[log in to unmask]]
Sent: Tuesday, May 28, 2002 3:45 AM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: Critically appraising a Delphi Study
Dear Andrew,
Carol Grbich gives some references for Delphi methodology in the
excellent book 'Qualitative Research in Health Care' (London: Sage,
1999)p 118.
Sounds interesting, please keep us posted on your progress.
Bill
On Mon, 27 May 2002 16:31:47 +0100 "A.Booth" <[log in to unmask]>
wrote:
> I facilitate a monthly critical appraisal group across Sheffield called
> Shebang. We look at papers suggested by the group for either
> methoidological or topical reasons.
> (For a feel of the last year's papers look at our website:
> http://www.shef.ac.uk/~scharr/ir/sheafs/)
>
> The group has decided to do a Delphi study for a future session
> and has selected:
> Peters J et al. (2001) What role do nurses play in Type 2 diabetes
> care in the community: a Delphi study. J Adv Nurs 34 (2): 179-188
>
> My questions to the list are three-fold:
> 1. Is anyone aware of a checklist for appraisal that specifically
> addresses Delphi studies?
> 2. If not has anyone appraised a Delphi study before and if so
> which generic checklist did you use?
> 3. What questions do you as experts in eb healthcare think that we
> should ask of a delphi study?
>
> Please be assured that if you reply to this email I will not be
> sending you out a further list of critical appraisal criteria to
prioritise
> :-) and so on and so on!
>
> Regards
>
> Andrew
>
>
> Andrew Booth BA MSc Dip Lib ALA
> Director of Information Resources and
> Senior Lecturer - Evidence Based Healthcare Information.
> School of Health & Related Research (ScHARR)
> Regent Court
> 30 Regent Street
> SHEFFIELD
> S1 4DA
> Tel: 0114 222 5420 or 5214 Fax: 0114 272 4095
> The author of Netting the Evidence:
> http://www.shef.ac.uk/~scharr/ir/netting.html
> and Trawling the Net:
> http://www.shef.ac.uk/~scharr/ir/trawling.html
> E-mail: [log in to unmask]
>
----------------------
Dr. W.S.M. Summerskill
EBM Teaching Coordinator, SW NHS Region
University of Bristol Centre for Medical Education
41 St. Michael's Hill, Bristol BS2 8DZ
[log in to unmask]
Tel (0117) 954-6535
Fax (0117) 928-8591
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