On Fri, 26 Jan 2001, Ray Thomas wrote:
> > Ray may be right in supposing that the 'Claimant Count' cannot be
> > modelled in the same way as observer bias etc.; but that is precisely
> > the approach used when modelling criminal statistics which are also a
> > creation - this time of Jack Straw's minions rather than DSS
> > agencies.
>
> I'd like to have more info on this. Crime statistics are creations of the
> police as well as being records of incidents. I understand that there has
> been modelling in the sense of treating incidents as recorded by the police
> as dependent on variables - such as unemployment(?) and income growth.
>
> But has there been any modelling of the statistics creation process - the
> translation of incidents into the police recording of crime. The
> independent variables might well include the targets set by police forces.
>
Hate to be self-aggrandising; but Crime, Police and Criminal Statistics,
admittedly a very ancient (c.19769) book authored by myself and Nick
Stern, sets out an admittedly crude formal model which purports to model
both the reporting of incidents by the Great British public to the police
and the process of recording by the police of reports into 'criminal'
incidents. Our estimates suggested that these were important effects.
>
> Would anyone understand that such modelling might be described as a study of
> 'observer bias'?
>
Whether one would label them that way is a matter of debalt; we certainly
called them 'reporting and recording biasses' which is prttyy close.
> Ray Thomas, Social Sciences, Open University
> Tel: 01908 679081 Fax 01908 550401
> Email: [log in to unmask]
> 35 Passmore, Milton Keynes MK6 3DY
>
> ******************************************************
> Please think before you press the 'Reply' button! Note that if you press
> the 'Reply' button your message will go the individual who posted this message
> not to the list. With many mailers you will have a 'Reply-to-All' button that
> will send automatically to the list address of <[log in to unmask]>. The
> Radstats list is set up for public discussion so please be generous with your
> thoughts and share them us all.
> *******************************************************
>
******************************************************
Please think before you press the 'Reply' button! Note that if you press
the 'Reply' button your message will go the individual who posted this message
not to the list. With many mailers you will have a 'Reply-to-All' button that
will send automatically to the list address of <[log in to unmask]>. The
Radstats list is set up for public discussion so please be generous with your
thoughts and share them us all.
*******************************************************
|