One of the papers cited by Roy Poses (Clinical versus actuarial judgment.
Science 1989;243:1668-74; Berlowitz DR, Ghalill K, Moskowitz MA) sheds some
further light on this issue. These authors found (or cite a study that
found) that a weighted formula based on how the best experts made a
diagnosis performed even better on new patients than the same experts
themselves, apparently because the experts were not consistent with their
own criteria; whereas, the formula was.
David L. Doggett, Ph.D.
Senior Medical Research Analyst
Technology Assessment Group
ECRI, a non-profit health services research organization
5200 Butler Pike
Plymouth Meeting, PA 19462-1298, USA
Phone: +1 (610) 825-6000 ext.5509
Fax: +1(610) 834-1275
E-mail: [log in to unmask]
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