Editorial by Stephen Watkins in BMJ of 1st January 2000."Conviction by
mathematical error?"
According to the author the expert witness at the recent trial, where a
solicitor was convicted of smothering her 2 infant children, used
probability theory incorrectly in advising the court. The author explains
the error made in terms of arrows in targets drawn before versus after the
arrows are shot. I can appreciate that there is something quite important
here that I (and lots of other ordinary medics who glibly bandy
figures/statistics around) really need to understand. So far I have
failed to get my brain round it.
Has anyone a *simple* explanation of the problem for the statistically
ungifted. Perhaps something using throws of dice or tossing of coins?
Adrian Roberts
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