I have waited a long time for replies to my (repeated) query
to  Allstat  about the credibility of informal reports of huge 
numbers of fatalities from AIDS and/or HIV in countries of 
sub-Saharan Africa.  A number of readers have asked me if I could 
move soon to provide a summary.  Here's what I have to report.

There were about a dozen replies making a variety of points,
among which I should mention the following :

	Allan Reese referred me to the on-line publications 
	of the US  CDC  regarding  HIV and AIDS
	( e.g. via  http://www.cdc.gov/nchstp/hiv_aids/pubs/ ).  
	I have followed this up, finding much interesting material, 
	although alas generally concerned with conditions in the
	US and Carribean rather than in Africa .  Incidentally in 
	reading the  CDC  pages and links I came across reporting 
	about the reliability of HIV tests of which the style was 
	impassioned and the content was florid and shocking - and 
	which deserves a separate summary.

	A. J. Rossini helpfully confirms that the immunological
	tests for HIV employed in African countries are generally
	the same as those used in 'Western' countries - tests
	such as  'ELISA'  and 'Western Blot'.

	Tim Downie has asserted the logical point that although
	I suggest that regionally endemic  immune deficiency  not
	necessarily connected with HIV could lead to disorders
	akin to those of  AIDS , a separate reasonable speculation 
	is that general immune deficiency could make it
	easier for  HIV  infection to occur.  Tim and I agree that
	the reportage available doesn't seem to allow one to test
	between such explanations.

	James Roger mentions the death from  AIDS  of an african 
	colleague who did not seem to have suffered from
	malnutrition. (I hope that this was not distressing
	for James to recall and kindly report!).

	Angelika Rosario  and  Ulrika Kohl  both point out that
	in many African countries the attitudes and practices
	regarding hygiene and regarding engagement with successions 
	of sexual partners are notably different from those which I
	would encounter here in the UK.

	Very recently, David Hirst has e-mailed me to point out
	a recent (Apr-00) public statement to the world press by a
	politician of South Africa :  Thabo Mbeki , that in Africa AIDS
	may not be caused by HIV.  I must read further about this!

A recurring theme in some of these reports and readings has 
been the puzzle as to why in Africa HIV seems (sic) to be 
proportionately common in women as contrasted with its rarity in 
women in 'The West'.

My thanks are due to those mentioned above and to others for 
taking the trouble to respond.  However, I don't feel that I am in 
a significantly better position than before to understand those
informal reports of huge numbers of deaths in African countries 
attributable to HIV and/or AIDS.  So I *would* be highly interested 
to hear more on these matters if anyone has anything further to say.

Norman Marsh
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