>Late reminder.
CENTRE FOR MEDICAL STATISTICS
SEMINAR SERIES on BIOSTATISTICS 1998/99
NO 9 Wednesday, May 5th, 1999 at 2:30pm
"Estimation for Semi-Markov Manpower Models
in a Stochastic Environment"
Professor Sally McClean
(University of Ulster)
For purposes of manpower planning we often need to estimate and
predict distributions of durations in various grades of a company
hierarchy. We have developed a methodology for fitting a stochastic
environment to manpower data for both the non-homogeneous Markov
system in a stochastic environment (S-NHMS) and the non-homogeneous
semi-Markov system in a stochastic environment (S-NHSMS). These models
provide a means of describing changes in the environment between
contiguous periods. We may therefore simultaneously model both the
process underlying a particular homogeneous time period and the
process governing movements between such periods, thus providing a
description of time heterogeneity. We may then make predictions of
future movements of staff through the system.
Keywords: Semi-Markov models; Stochastic Environment; Manpower
Planning.
Room CBA1.098
Chancellor's Building
Keele University
http:/www.keele.ac.uk/
(Tea in Reading Room Maths. afterwards)
All welcome!
Gilbert
_____________________________
Prof. Gilbert MacKenzie
Director,
Centre for Medical Statistics
Keele University
Staffordshire ST5 5BG
England
Tel: (01782) 583651
Fax: (01782) 584268
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