Second announcement of the Royal Statistical Society Medical Section
Half day meeting on Health economics, evidence synthesis and decision
science in health care resource allocation
Please see RSS Website: http://www.rss.org.uk/main.asp?page=2223
Date and Time: November 28th 2006 at 2pm
Venue: The Royal Statistical Society, 12 Errol Street, London
For all section and study group meetings held at the RSS
pre-registration is recommended. You can register by email:
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1. Simon Thompson, MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge
Aortic aneurysms: from randomised trials to a national screening programme
Randomised trials have shown that ultrasound screening for abdominal
aortic aneurysms (AAA) is effective in reducing mortality. However,
evidence on long-term cost-effectiveness comes principally from decision
models. I will discuss some of the issues involved in building a
reliable model, including parameter estimation and uncertainty,
structural uncertainty, and model validation. This research has
informed the recent decision to initiate a national AAA screening
programme in the UK.
2. Nicky Welton and Tony Ades, Department of Social Medicine, University
of Bristol
Expected Value of Information Calculations in Practice: Interventions to
Increase Uptake of Breast Cancer Screening
As interest has increased in the use of formal Bayesian methods in
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis, there has also been a growing interest in
Expected Value of Information (EVI) to prioritise and design research
aimed at reducing uncertainty in decision models. In this talk we
illustrate some of the practical issues to consider when carrying out
such an analysis. We develop a simple cost-effectiveness analysis of
breast cancer screening as a typical case study, and use data from a
1999 cluster randomised 2x2 factorial trial of interventions to increase
uptake. An EVI analysis is developed which shows that, based on the
evidence available beforehand, the trial was cost-effective, but that
after incorporating the results of the trial it would still be
cost-effective to carry out research that further reduced decision
uncertainty. We identify key conceptual and technical issues: the
relation between the target interventions and the previous evidence, the
distinction between variation and uncertainty, and methods for
correlated parameters. We discuss the advantages of using EVI methods
over current methods of research prioritisation, but also consider some
potential limitations to their use in practice.
3. Norman Waugh, Department of Public Health, University of Aberdeen
Health technology assessment for UK policy makers
Health technology assessment poses three main questions;
· does it work?
· at what cost?
· is it worth it?
The UK HTA Programme has supported the work of NICE and others, by
commissioning technology assessment reports (TARs) from seven academic
units around the UK. These provide the NICE Technology Appraisal
Committee with an independent assessment of the evidence. The
manufacturer provides their view of the evidence and their own economic
model. Clinical and patient groups also provide submissions. This
presentation will provide an overview of the process and its problems,
mainly from the perspective of someone who is a producer of TARs, for
NICE and other UK bodies.
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