Dear All
Seminar 8: Friday, April 12th, Room MAP/0G/005, Maths and Physics
Teaching Centre, QUB , at 3pm -4pm (Coffee and biscuits from 2:30pm).
Title: Quantitative system risk assessment from incomplete data
By: Professor Simon Wilson , Trinity College Dublin
Abstract.
A method for conducting Bayesian elicitation and learning in risk
assessment is presented. It assumes that the risk process can be
described as a fault tree. This is viewed as a belief network, for which
prior distributions on primary event probabilities are elicited by means
of a pairwise comparison approach. A Bayesian updating procedure,
following observation of some or all of the events in the fault tree, is
described. The application is illustrated through the motivating example
of risk assessment of spacecraft explosion during controlled re-entry.
RSVP: Please email the Secretary if attending in order to assist with
planning lunch
Please check the website
www.rssni.co.uk
Best
Gilbert
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_____________________________
Prof. Gilbert MacKenzie,
Formerly of
Centre of Biostatistics,
Dept. of Mathematics & Statistics,
University of Limerick,
Limerick
Ireland
Hon. Sec. RSS NI Local Group.
RSSNI ~ www.rssni.co.uk
RSS Conference Sept. 2019 in Belfast: see website
CBS ~ http://www3.ul.ie/biostatistics
BIO-SI ~ http://www3.ul.ie/bio-si
Resesearchgate ~ https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Gilbert_MacKenzie
Email: [log in to unmask]
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