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1) I'm sure I read an expert quoted by the BBC as saying that analysis of t=
races could reveal the location of manufacture due to characteristics of th=
e ingredients.

2) In a separate BBC article I read another expert's opinion that the inten=
tion might have been to send a message to those thinking about defecting th=
at they would die a horrible slow death or suffer longer term health proble=
ms, rather than a nice quick bullet to end it all. (I think this was a diff=
erent expert to 1, above :)

3) Using such terms increases subscriptions/page hits/advertising revenue/v=
isibility etc. (Delete as applicable.)

4) Sometimes there is no rational explanation for things. Particularly when=
 trying to rationalise something in someone else's culture from one's own.


From: GP-UK [ mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Julian Bradley
Sent: 16 March 2018 01:24
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Sergei Skirpal and a bad smell

Salisbury, Sergei Skirpal and Nerve agents.

In the main this is just for the record because whatever the truth it's har=
d to see how this post could possibly change anything - but I'm retired and=
 have the time.

WW2 General George Patton said: If everyone is thinking alike, then somebod=
y isn't thinking and it seems from the media and parliament that only one p=
oint of view is considered sane.

Of course there may be information not yet in the public domain to support =
the conclusions some rushed to about this event, or there may have been a g=
ood guess that will be substantiated, but it "smells" and some information =
and older speculation are worth considering.

There is no ONE chemical called novichok.  There are supposed to have been =
many novel nerve agents that were being tested under this general category.=
  A description of this, and the role that a site in Uzbekistan might have =
played can be found on Wikipedia, and in a variety of books published over =
the last 20-30 years.  Louise Hidalgo did a report August 9, 1999 "US disma=
ntles chemical weapons" published at BBC News Online "One of the key manufa=
cturing sites was a chemical research institute in what is now Uzbekistan, =
and small, experimental batches of the weapons may have been tested on the =
nearby Ustyurt plateau."

The knowledge that such agents exist, and a chemical formula which is in th=
e public domain, could have given any country capable of producing chemical=
 weapons enough information in that time to create an agent in this group.

There is also a discussion in:
Ian Greaves FRCP, FCEM, FIMC, RCS(Ed), DTM&H, DMCC, DipMedEd, RAMC, Paul Hu=
nt MBBS, DipIMC(RCSEd), MCEM, MRCSEd, DMCC, RAMC, in Responding to Terroris=
m, 2010

We know that as the Soviet Union broke up security was far from guaranteed =
- both chemicals and information may have found their way to a number of pl=
aces.

There is, for example, the alleged smuggling of chemical weapons by Lt Gen.=
 Anatoly Kuntsevich in the early 1990s.   One site says he was dismissed an=
d charged with helping smuggle nerve agent precursors to Syria, another sit=
e repeats the smuggling assertion but suggests that he died, possibly at th=
e hands of Mossad, on a plane journey.  It's been suggested that this was t=
he basis of the Syrian VX program,but could information on the newer nerve =
agents also have been smuggled?

SO....

1)

Have we identified the agent because we have the exact chemical details of =
the Novichoks the USSR researched and manufactured?
Are we sure no-one else had that information?
If not how do we know this is a post Soviet Russian Novichok rather than so=
mething developed elsewhere?

2)

If it's so deadly why is Skirpal still alive?  A state applying its resourc=
es to this with a program of testing would surely have been able to guarant=
ee the outcome.

3)

Why has the UK been using the term "Military Grade" and what does it mean? =
 Something can be military spec if you know the specification - usually the=
 cheapest that will do the particular job adequately.  Other than that the =
term is found in advertising and propaganda.  What would a civilian grade n=
ovel nerve agent look like???

4)

When considering motive who might have the motive to kill Skirpal is of cou=
rse one approach but another is to ask who might want to increase the tensi=
on between the UK or NATO and Russia.  Skirpal could easily and quietly hav=
e been killed in Russia.  Why exchange him, leave him several years and the=
n kill him?

Amongst states with potential motives North Korea and Iran immediately come=
 to mind.  Both have advanced scientific facilities.  North Korea is the ON=
LY state known to have used a nerve agent internationally ever and while th=
ey killed their target it seems to have been done in a very amateurish way =
using intermediaries.  It's not clear why neither the politicians nor the m=
edia have mentioned this when considering "patterns of behaviour".  In any =
case we know that North Korea clearly has nerve agents while Iran is believ=
ed to have conducted research on nerve agents and will likely have anything=
 that Kuntsevich or others ever passed to Syria.

5)

Finally given it's suspicions why did the government not follow the procedu=
res that seem to be laid out in the Chemical Weapons Convention.  From: htt=
ps://www.opcw.org/chemical-weapons-convention/articles/article-ix-consultat=
ions-cooperation-and-fact-finding/

Article IX. Consultations, Cooperation and Fact-Finding

1. States Parties shall consult and cooperate, directly among themselves, o=
r through the Organization or other appropriate international procedures, i=
ncluding procedures within the framework of the United Nations and in accor=
dance with its Charter, on any matter which may be raised relating to the o=
bject and purpose, or the implementation of the provisions, of this Convent=
ion.

...

A State Party which receives a request from another State Party for clarifi=
cation of any matter which the requesting State Party believes causes such =
a doubt or concern shall provide the requesting State Party as soon as poss=
ible, but in any case not later than 10 days after the request, with inform=
ation sufficient to answer the doubt or concern raised along with an explan=
ation of how the information provided resolves the matter.

IN CONCLUSION

Russia as a state may be responsible for what has happened and if so they m=
ust be held accountable but it's hard to see that any jury should convict b=
ased on the evidence so far in the public domain.  Anti-Russian hysteria wo=
uld not seem to be in Britain's interests - the world is full of less than =
perfect countries some of whom we even count as allies and we run a trade s=
urplus with Russia!

As with any crime it's important that we find the actual perpetrator, rathe=
r than look for evidence to support our preferred idea.
In that context pre-trial disclosure has been shown to be fundamental to ob=
taining justice.  How much more important when not just the imprisonment of=
 one man, but the lives of millions are at stake?

Finally whatever the rights and wrongs of Brexit if this is used as the bas=
is for saying we should change our position I for one will find the smell o=
verpowering.

As mentioned... just for the record.

Julian

Click here< https://www.mailcontrol.com/sr/MZbqvYs5QwJvpeaetUwhCQ=3D=3D> to =
report this email as spam.

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Any views or opinions expressed are solely those of the author and do not n=
ecessarily represent those of Advanced Health and Care Limited.



From: GP-UK [ mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Julian Bradley
Sent: 16 March 2018 01:24
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Sergei Skirpal and a bad smell

 

Salisbury, Sergei Ski= rpal and Nerve agents.

In the main this is just for the record because whatever the truth it's har= d to see how this post could possibly change anything - but I'm retired and= have the time.

WW2 General George Patton said: If everyone is thinking alike, then somebod= y isn't thinking and it seems from the media and parliament that only one p= oint of view is considered sane.

Of course there may be information not yet in the public domain to support = the conclusions some rushed to about this event, or there may have been a g= ood guess that will be substantiated, but it "smells" and some in= formation and older speculation are worth considering.

There is no ONE chemical called novichok.  There are supposed to have = been many novel nerve agents that were being tested under this general cate= gory.  A description of this, and the role that a site in Uzbekistan m= ight have played can be found on Wikipedia, and in a variety of books published over the last 20-30 years.  Louis= e Hidalgo did a report August 9, 1999 "US dismantles chemical weapons&=
quot; published at BBC News Online "One of the key manufacturing sites= was a chemical research institute in what is now Uzbekistan, and small, experimental batches of the weapons may have been tested on the= nearby Ustyurt plateau."

The knowledge that such agents exist, and a chemical formula which is in th= e public domain, could have given any country capable of producing chemical= weapons enough information in that time to create an agent in this group.<= br> 
There is also a discussion in:
Ian Greaves FRCP, FCEM, FIMC, RCS(Ed), DTM&H, DMCC, DipMedEd, RAMC, Pau= l Hunt MBBS, DipIMC(RCSEd), MCEM, MRCSEd, DMCC, RAMC, in Responding to Terr= orism, 2010

We know that as the Soviet Union broke up security was far from guaranteed = - both chemicals and information may have found their way to a number of pl= aces.

There is, for example, the alleged smuggling of chemical weapons by Lt Gen.= Anatoly Kuntsevich in the early 1990s.   One site says he was di= smissed and charged with helping smuggle nerve agent precursors to Syria, a= nother site repeats the smuggling assertion but suggests that he died, possibly at the hands of Mossad, on a plane jou= rney.  It's been suggested that this was the basis of the Syrian VX pr= ogram,but could information on the newer nerve agents also have been smuggl= ed?

SO....

1)

Have we identified the agent because we have the exact chemical details of = the Novichoks the USSR researched and manufactured?
Are we sure no-one else had that information?
If not how do we know this is a post Soviet Russian Novichok rather than so= mething developed elsewhere?

2)

If it's so deadly why is Skirpal still alive?  A state applying its re= sources to this with a program of testing would surely have been able to gu= arantee the outcome.

3)

Why has the UK been using the term "Military Grade" and what does= it mean?  Something can be military spec if you know the specificatio= n - usually the cheapest that will do the particular job adequately.  = Other than that the term is found in advertising and propaganda.  What would a civilian grade novel nerve agent look like?= ??

4)

When considering motive who might have the motive to kill Skirpal is of cou= rse one approach but another is to ask who might want to increase the tensi= on between the UK or NATO and Russia.  Skirpal could easily and quietl= y have been killed in Russia.  Why exchange him, leave him several years and then kill him?

Amongst states with potential motives North Korea and Iran immediately come= to mind.  Both have advanced scientific facilities.  North Korea= is the ONLY state known to have used a nerve agent internationally ever an= d while they killed their target it seems to have been done in a very amateurish way using intermediaries.  It'= s not clear why neither the politicians nor the media have mentioned this w= hen considering "patterns of behaviour".  In any case we kno= w that North Korea clearly has nerve agents while Iran is believed to have conducted research on nerve agents and will likely hav= e anything that Kuntsevich or others ever passed to Syria. 

5)

Finally given it's suspicions why did the government not follow the procedu= res that seem to be laid out in the Chemical Weapons Convention.  From: https://www.opcw.org/chemical-weapons-convention/articles/article-ix-consul= tations-cooperation-and-fact-finding/

Article IX. Consultations, Cooperation and Fact-Finding

1. States Parties shall consult and cooperate, directly among themselves, o= r through the Organization or other appropriate international procedures, i= ncluding procedures within the framework of the United Nations and in accor= dance with its Charter, on any matter which may be raised relating to the object and purpose, or the implementat= ion of the provisions, of this Convention.

…

A State Party which receives a request from another State Party for clarifi= cation of any matter which the requesting State Party believes causes such = a doubt or concern shall provide the requesting State Party as soon as poss= ible, but in any case not later than 10 days after the request, with information sufficient to answer the = doubt or concern raised along with an explanation of how the information pr= ovided resolves the matter.

IN CONCLUSION

Russia as a state may be responsible for what has happened and if so they m= ust be held accountable but it's hard to see that any jury should convict b= ased on the evidence so far in the public domain.  Anti-Russian hyster= ia would not seem to be in Britain's interests - the world is full of less than perfect countries some of whom = we even count as allies and we run a trade surplus with Russia!

As with any crime it's important that we find the actual perpetrator, rathe= r than look for evidence to support our preferred idea.
In that context pre-trial disclosure has been shown to be fundamental to ob= taining justice.  How much more important when not just the imprisonme= nt of one man, but the lives of millions are at stake?

Finally whatever the rights and wrongs of Brexit if this is used as the bas= is for saying we should change our position I for one will find the smell o= verpowering.

As mentioned... just for the record.

Julian