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As always with CBA, the key issue are:

1 what aspects are ignored and not costed
2 what is costed but underestimated (or overestimated)
3 what valuations are used and what criteria are used for them. Would other people with different interests use different valuations?

I suspect that the WB approach, if it is ever tracked down, has several problems with these. for instance, I expect that it is narrowly related to physical structures whose construction costs can be calculated. I doubt very much if anything is included to measure social costs, such as suffering (illness, mental illness or disturbance, bereavement, loss of income from deaths, domestic violence) or livelihoods (lost, disrupted or reduced income, damaged or lost assets).

On the other hand, I don't believe these calculations actually measure the aggregate cost against likely losses. For instance, if investments are made to protect structures from a flood or earthquake, and this is done in every location that is reasonably ancticipated to face these hazards, what calculation should be made for the fact that not all these locations will be affected within the time frame of the investment (eg the lifespan of a building, road or bridge).

I am strongly in favour of mitigation - mainly to prevent the social costs - but if this is the framework to be adopted then it needs to be rigorous.

Ilan, I also suggest you contact Ed Clay on this.

good wishes

Terry


At 20:43 25/07/2012, oscar guevara wrote:
Dear All

The best numbers I used in the past, are those than compare:

-  the expenditure in the reinforcement of a building to a requiered "seismic performance", compared to the reduction of the expected losses if the earthquake happens.( expenditure vs expected lossess)

- On adition to that, it oftenly is compared against the reduction in insurance payments

Both indicators give crucial information about cost effectiveness, but somehow the numbers are less optimistic that the 7:1 ratio

Best

--
Oscar Guevara
Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction Advisor -Consultant
Msc Environmental Economics
Msc Risk and Disaster Management
mobile: (+57) 3017559428
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